Tag Archives: pandemic

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A little Disease Philosophy

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Disease is a fact of human life.  Logically precautions should be taken to avoid catching a disease and should these fail ways to mitigate the diseases impact should be deployed.

Currently we are have been an official World Health Organization declared pandemic for a little under two years.  The pandemic declaration refers to a disease which is prevalent around the world, in this case covid 19 and variants.

Mitigation

With the advances in communication and viral science the response to the covid 19 pandemic has been better and more effective than any other pandemic in human history.

This fact is often overlooked as the disease continues to spread and people continue to need hospitalization and a number have died.

However relative to other deadly pandemic’s given our advanced  technology and other capabilities to avoid getting sick the impacts have been well managed.

Although not everyone views this to be the case because they have no recent experience to compare to.

What’s Next

Predicting the future is always a bit of a perilous game but I will take a chance.  The virus has mutated to a more transmissible variety but the impacts are lessened.

Thus, the pandemic is posed to become just another disease among many and our mitigation practices will again revert to the standard before the pandemic began.

This is not to say the risk of catching covid and the associated impacts will disappear, rather just reach acceptable levels of likelihood and impact.

Spanish Flu

Considering the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 to 1920 as an example  I predict 2022 as the year the covid pandemic slowly becomes a part of history and the virus becomes categorized as just another illness.  Oh but what a fun ride it has been.

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Pandemic or Disease

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A pandemic is a disease that affects a large number of people over multiple countries. I wonder what is the metric defining a large number of people, thus determining a disease is epidemic versus just a day to day illness.

As more and more people around the world become vaccinated against the current covid pandemic, what is the point it becomes just another disease and extraordinary restrictions currently in place can be lifted?

Caution is Prudent

Personally I agree guarding against illness by cleanliness, distancing, masks, testing etc are all practices that make sense.  They  do mitigate (but not remove) the possibility of us catching a disease.

However, the question is what level of risk mitigation is appropriate when the likelihood and impact of the risk is considered.  Before the covid pandemic the practices most followed to prevent catching some illness were generally far less than current.

The level of caution around illness prevention has risen greatly over the last tow years.  This can be attributed to the increased risk of becoming ill (covid is very communicable) and the impact (covid can lead to death).

Acceptable Risk

A key question for me, of late, is what is the measure that will allow us to declare the temporary risk mitigation restrictions of the last two years no longer needed by society as a whole.

The rate of transmission and the severity of covid cases would seem to me to be reasonable measures.  The tricky part is what the exact metric would be, surely not  zero transmission and hospitalization, but if not that definitive than what?

My concern is not enough thought has been given to this measure or clear communication of the goal we seek.  Without drawing a bar we could just continue in pandemc mode for years or decades.  Does this make sense?

 

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The beginning of the End

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The College Woods neighborhood in Riverside, Edmonton is made up of 115 homes built mainly between 2002 and 2004.  The neighbourhood was largley completed and occupied by 2005.

However, six lots or so were sold to independent builders and those houses were constructed from 2005 up to around 2014 with the exception of one lot which remained empty.

New Neighbour’s are coming

The empty lot was three doors south of our current home. Finally, I guess property values reached an acceptable point for the purchaser and the lot sold and building commenced.

Looks like our neighbourhood will, after 19 years, be completly built out.  This does seem to me to be a long time for an empty lot to sit and I am bit surprised the city did not encourage the owner to build, for the increased tax revenue.

Canadian Housing Markets Reasonable

There has been a lot in the news lately about the hot housing markets in Canada although given the large amount of available land in Edmonton, to mention nothing of Northern location, itis not really a hot spot.

We have noticed, as a personal anecdote, that houses in surrounding area that were sitting on the market for years suddenly sold this summer and our neighbours listed and sold their home within three months.

Pandemic Economy Impacts

Probably  the Spector of rising interest rates and higher inflation is at least one of the factors driving this behaviour, thus it is country wide albeit at different paces depending on geographic location.

For us this is the end of a era, that is an incomplete neighbourhood , but also this is likely a sign of the current economic state.  I wonder what is next.

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Understanding Pandemic Economic Impacts

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Economics is an area of knowledge with a very broad scope that can be worldwide or regional and cover a plethora of activities although these are related to production, consumption and transfer of wealth.

Our regional economies link together in many different ways.  A worldwide event like the current covid pandemic impacts those links heavily and affects all areas of the earth although regional response and thus associated outcomes can vary.

Resource Management

The main purpose for studying economic activity is the development of plans to manage economies in ways that will produce positive outcomes for all (theoretically speaking).

In reality,  economics are also leveraged by many with a focus on personal gain.  The study of resource management together with associated predictions and manipulations is considered complex and sold to many as being an opaque topic for experts.

Keep it Simple

On the whole economics is a complex subject however currently the majority of production and consumption around the world is governed by the availability and perceived value of government backed currency (some currencies having more weight than others).

Simply put, regardless of other influences (e.g., covid) as long as currency has value manipulation of the money supply will allow governments to effect economic change.

And Therein Lies the Rub

Currency value is very much dependent on supply and demand.  Simply stated too much supply will make currency valueless.  Germany in the 1930’s presents a clear example of this when a wheelbarrow full of marks was needed to buy a loaf of bread.

In the event the money supply collapses because governments have printed money beyond the needs of demand it is likely economic focus will shift to goods and materials of critical value like food and water.  The barter system could see resurgence.

What does the future hold?

The monetary based economy as we currently know it could well disappear because our governments have chosen to address the pandemic impacts on production and consumption by printing money.

I believe this is why bitcoin has become so popular of late , the supply is fixed and subject to an absolute limit.  Hence when government backed currency becomes worthless and an alternative to barter is sought bitcoin may well be the answer.

 

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Pandemic Restrictions

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In Canada various public health restrictions have been in place across the country since March of this year.  As the year comes to a close the rules for protecting our health are in some cases escalating beyond those enacted in March.

Following the aptly names first wave of covid 19, as the case numbers reduced and the “curve” dropped (that is the rate of increase of new cases) the restrictions lessened.

The Second Wave

Even at the end of the first wave a second perhaps even worse one was predicted.  A friend of mine likened the loosening of  covid 19 restrictions as the rate of infection falls to skydiving with a parachute.

He quipped since the parachute was working and slowing the decent perhaps we could take it off.   What a great analogy and very accurate description of how Canadian governments have failed their populations.

For me it is just common sense, the risk mitigation practices that lessen the chance of catching the virus need to remain until we reach the ground.  Anything else is just silly.

At a Cost

One of the arguments which are frequently shared about the cost of restricting individual freedoms it diminishes the individuality and freedoms  of each of us for the good of the whole (duh) .

Yet a quick browse of history shows virtually the same practices were in place during the Spanish flu outbreak of the 1918 to 20.

Following processes to keep us safe as a whole and defeat the disease are basic common sense.  I seriously question the intelligence of those unable to grasp the simple concept – “Taking the parachute off before you are on the ground is deathly.”

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Social Constraints

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There are things within our societies that limit us from doing what we want.  These social norms are sometimes carved in stone, that is legally bindings with penalties for contravention.

The more challenging social norms are value based and sometimes our perceptions of right and wrong do not map to those of others, leading to bad feelings or other forms of conflict.

Social Distancing

A recent example of this that springs to my mind is the newly minted concept of social distancing which has been invented to assist us in limiting the spread of covid 19.

Social distancing is the new norm, yet I personally perceive it to be loosely practiced by so many people of encounter these days, that is in the outdoor or work space context (Where I live indoor social events are against the law based on a declared health emergency.)

My wife and I go for a walk daily and are constantly annoyed by those that do not move to single file on a narrow path or move to the side so we can move by each other with a six foot distance.  What is not to get about social distancing, it should be the norm?

Let’s all Live Together People

While I am a big proponent of live being all about me, it is my life, we all need to realize (including me) live without others is not possible and getting along, that is accepting some behavior standards is not only the polite thing to do it is the right thing to do.

The consequences of not social distancing are not readily apparent but it not just about breaking behavioural norms it can lead to some very negative results, even death.  So fellow walkers, be courteous, be aware, take care.

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Panic Demic

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In a time of a pandemic, the new norm becomes social distancing.  That is keeping at least one meter away from others.  Perhaps elbow bumps are okay but handshakes and hugs are out.

Given the covid -19 virus can live on surfaces for up to a week or more I am not sure social distancing has great value.  Airborne transmission is considered not to be the main vector, although not much is really known.

Over Reacting

This is a serious disease that is propagating rapidly, often passed by carriers with no symptoms.  The illness can be fatal.  Putting protective and preventative measures in place is only common sense.

In this situation not reacting makes no sense but overreacting/panicking is probably not a good choice.   Things like hoarding or pure isolation could be more harmful.

In Canada, the authorities’ reactions have been somewhat measured but the general populous is acting in full-on panic mode in some cases.

Economic Reality

World wide commercial activity is clearly going to be reduced during this pandemic.  This loss of productivity will worm through each countries economy over time.  This is obvious.

What I find hard to understand is the running for the exits before the fire has really started.  Stock markets around the world have crashed, but the economy soldiers on.

Must be anticipation.  Herd mentality. All-consuming panic.   Basically just a sudden uncontrollable fear or anxiety leading to wildly unthinking behavior.

For all the good it does.  Not!