All posts by steve@kerrzone.com

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Top down

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Traditional theory categorizes group management as top down or bottom up.  In this model bottom up is considered a weaker approach and indicative of lack of cohesive strategy or direction.

Sadly, for those that consider this concept viable, it is in fact an ancient and outmoded perspective. Today’s management philosophy is clear, effective and proactive  leadership is neither bottom nor top centric.

The approach chosen, leading from behind or in front, coaching results or directing results, ( to compare two extremes ) all work.  It is the context that leads to success, that is choosing the best approach based on the circumstances.

Show me the way

Traditional group concepts place a leader in front.  The expectation is that the group will behave in a sheep like manner, expecting the leader to get in front and set the direction for all to follow.

The modern perspective revolves around strategic leadership.  Although intrenched in the English language,  in fact, leader is no longer a relevant word.

The catalyst for group success lies with expert facilitation.  Channeling the energy of a group, team or organization does not require anyone to be in front, nor is it neccesarily the best approach.

Bottom up/Top Down

From an organizational perspective these are obsolete concepts.  High performing groups look within and cooperate seemlessly without boundaries and preconcieved notions.

In these cases the exercise of power lies with everyone.  You earn it and use for the good of all.   You are not granted the power of leadership.

 

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Fear of Missing Out

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Human behaviour is most interesting for me when considering group think, basically crowd or herd mentality.

Many of you will be following the top equity market story of the last couple of months – marijuana companies.  The demand for these  stocks has no logical or rational analysis behind it that I can figure out.

Me too

Personally I believe this is a perfect example of the fear of being left out.   Based on the demand, unsupported by more than a quess at what sales volume the marijuana market  represents, thousands are acting out their me-too impulse.

Basically if we don’t buy now at whatever price we might miss out.  Lets get in before it’s too late.  News flash, it’s too late.  It was probably too late when the price for Canopy (the biggest Canadian marijuana producer) broke $8 a share.

Looking at basic indicators like sales, forecast sales, forecast earnings per share, net asset value, market cap, management track record and so on a solid case could be made to buy Canopy at $7 to $8 per share.  Beyond that, not so much and $42 per share, forget it.

(Full disclosure I bought at a little over $7 share).

Probabilities

Based on a very conservative guess at the size of the Canadian marijuana market, Canopy’s share of this market ( considering manufacturing capacity and current sales) it is highly likely they will be able to pay a 5 to7% dividend (based on a $7 share price) within 3 years (assuming they don’t retain a lot of capital to keep growing).

My estimation though is at $42 per share the dividend would be less than 1% at most and the only way you would get good value is if the sales grow rapidly along with demand for the shares.  A very big if for me.

So I conclude, the sheep mentality is in place and emotions, not logic or analysis are driving demand.

 

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Economic Theory

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Economics is the practice of creating a theory to explain commercial activity.  This can span towns,cities, countries even the world.  The concept is to improve commercial activity through actions predicted by the theory as giving rise to positive results.

Is it working

There are a large number of well known and respected economic theories (Keynesian, Malthusian, consumerism, monitarism and so on).  Of course there are plenty of less well known theories as well.

The question of how successful economic management practices, based on these theories, have been is very difficult to answer.  I often wonder how the economy would fare without any intervention.

While activities that stimulate or contract commercial activities can be implemented and their results monitored, the question of what would have happened without intervention is unanswerable.

Todays Economy

Some industry and government organizations are questioning the relevance and effectiveness of traditional practices aimed at improving economic conditions.

The question arises whether economists have kept up with the myriad of continuously evolving factors that drive the economy.

Current changes in employment levels, productivity and individual wealth seem  to have little relationship to both macro and micro activities promoted by central economic theory.

Do Nothing

What would happen if governments stopped managing the money supply? (e.g.,  no economic easing , free floating rates, free trade and so on). Sadly no ones knows and it is unlikely we will ever find out.

 

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Team Behaviours

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The other day a colleague advised me the topic I had raised for discussion was “my problem”.  This is hard to dispute as I am a believer in personal accountability.

What surprised me though, was the lack of understanding around the impact of such responses.  The message is clear, we are not a team, why are you bothering me with your problems.

Good communication benefits everyone

Team players understand the need to share.  The menbers of your organization are undoubtedly unique and diverse in their personalities and the associated behaviours.

Being a team player does not require empathy, sympathy or replication of others behaviours but it does mean listening, probing and understanding (i.e., strong communication).

We don’t always agree with each other, nor do we need too.  Diversity of thought and action are the underpinnings of innovation, efficiencies and high performing results.

Attack the idea not the behaviour.

It is easy to shut down collaboration, just respond with comments related to a persons behaviour.  For example, “not my problem, what a dumb thing to say, you have issues, you have not thought this out very well”

It’s not a stretch to realize those responses are not going to lead to a productive discussion nor team focused resolution.  Behaving individualistically encourages the same in others.

Help yourself and others

Being responsive, respectful and focusing on the content rather than the individual (e.g., you are, you said) benefits everyone.  Positive conclusions are achieved, not neccessarily agreement but at a minimum understanding.

So next time, before responding to someone in a way that includes, “you” or “ your” or “their” and so on pause and rephrase in a way that will result in more effective collaboration.

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Boxing the Information

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It is a very natural human behaviour to classify, categorize and assume knowledge based on structure and context.  That is to say we tend to “box” stuff.

Bias and stereotyping are common sub-practices that incorporate this “boxing” behaviour.  For example, many people consider the female sex physically weak, dark skinned people are more likely to be criminals.  Asians are smart and really value post secondary education for their children.

These bias or stereotypes are simply a way of categorizing information quickly.  They are not necessarily true and certainly they represent an extreme.

In reality, extreme absolutes are rare.  Most things balance somewhere in the middle.

It does not require much effort to behave based on preconceived notions.  Unfortunately reasoned and balanced analysis does require conscious effort (it’s hard) .  As a result, most of us follow the easy route and act on simplistic assumptions, they seem logical but are they?

Take time to Understand

Consider a situation where you are going for a job interview.  You dress to impress and prepare sharp and positive things to say about yourself.

You believe a structured approach to the interview is best.  You don’t want to be perceived as conceited or arrogant.  In essence you are going to behave according to the “box” you have put the hiring manager into.  You are going to act the way you think most hiring managers expect.

Why do we box our behaviour this way.  Why assume these contextual aspects.  Why not start by being yourself, after-all if the employer does not want you for whom you are, then everyone is being disserviced.   You are fooling the employer and yourself.

Standing out as unique, may result in a very positive outcome.

Be Different

It is harder and takes a conscious effort to pause and think the best way to react in a situation, as opposed to the perceived “box”.    The results from acting outside the box, the balanced approach, can often surprise, in a positive way.

This is not to imply being different, thinking and acting outside the box is a guaranteed way to success or that it will always work but if you don’t try it occasionally you will never know the benefits.

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

My Way or the Highway

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Leadership styles that are collaborative and encourage others to be leaders themselves, versus followers, are generally acknowledged as more effective.  The results are not only better but also sustainable.

Inspiring others to bring out the leader within has it’s own built in succession plan.  Leading in a way that a persons best is drawn from a myriad of diverse sources, rather than a dictatorial do this do that style, is intuitively better.

Getting it Done

Suprisingly though, a balanced dose of authoritative practices can really enhance the visionary and collaborative traits.   Being clear and decisive, verging on overly directive, can be a fine line for the those that want to facilitate rather than force results.

One of the most important tasks of a leader is guiding followers to the groups goals and objectives.  In this case the I intend the use of the term leader not necessarily to mean the person in front or the term followers to refer to those behind.

Rather the terms are role representative, not indicative of how the role is exercised (i.e., not leading or following position is not implied).

The best approach at the appropriate time

The most successful  leaders tailor their approach to the context.  For example, for a team that has lost it’s way nuturing and developing activities might best be put on hold until the directional engine is started again.

In this case a clear simple and easily understandable strategy that can be embraced by all might be a better place to start.  Clear and forceful direction is probably warranted and would not be badly received.  In fact most likely will lead to faster development of a team capable of the more collaborative approach.

Recognizing the context and tailoring your leadership style, day by day, can lead to outstanding results.

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Speculation

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Speculation, in a general context, is the act of forming a theory or conjecture in the absence of information.  Using what you do know to assimilate what you don’t.

Speculation can be risky but rewarding.  With most things, although particularly evident in the investment world, high risk can be a path to high reward.  Of course it can also lead to low reward (or even loss).

The value in speculation

When the known facts lead to an accurate deduction about a current state  the actions taken as a result of that prediction or guess, i.e., speculation,  can be positive.

Given you are unlikely to plan a course of action, (leveraging the speculation) that would have a negative result,  correct predictions or interpretation of the known facts,  can be rewarding.

To speculate or not to speculate

The act of speculation is not in and of itself a risk.  Planning and executing a course of action based on speculation is when the risk comes into play.

Speculating about things like a potential change in your organizations strategy, structure or even personnel changes might be a fun way to spend some idle time.

Acting on your speculation by actively responding to changes that have not happened but you speculate might occur is when it gets tricky.

You may change career paths, organizations or lobby for advancement based on predicted role changes.  This could lead to a good result.  It also could be a mistake.

When considering the theories or conjecture arising from speculation it is wise to weigh the impacts of acting and  likelihood of success before proceeding with any response to your speculation.

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Appetite for Risk

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There are two main activities associated with risk.  First risk analysis, what are the risks, liklihood of occurrence and impact if the risk event does occur?

Following on the heels of analysis is the practice of risk management.  Some consider risk analysis just a sub process of risk management but I view them as separate practices.

Risk Tolerance

People often talk about thier tolerance for risk.  The implication being some accept more risk than others.  For me, it is not a questions of whether the initial risk is high or low, or accepting it at all, it’s how how you mitigate it so it becomes or remains low.

Any activity I undertake, whether, skiing, motor car racing, investing in equities or just walking down the street has a risk associated with it.

If the activity has a high probability of occurence and the impact will be quite detrimental, my approach is not necessarily to avoid the activity, particularly if it is some thing I want to do.

Instead of avoidance I practice mitigation.  By planning my actions in a way to reduce the likelihood of occurence coupled with an understanding of how to reduce the impact if the risk occurs, I can engage with confidence.

Consider for example bringing a Christmas tree into your house.  There is a risk it can be a catalyst for a house fire.  By watering and careful placement and use of heat sources when decorating, you mitigate or reduce the likelihood of occurance.

By having a fire extinguisher on hand you can mitigate the impact if the risk occurs.  A home insurance fire policy helps with this too.  Using these mitigation techniques enables you to bring a dead fire hazzard into your home without fear.

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

I am busy

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Not many things push my button like the phrase “I am too busy”.  Get ready for a rant.  In essence statement means you have a great deal to do or you are occupied  or concentrating on a particular activity and so cannot do something else

For me, this is simply both an excuse and a self justification.  It can also be a defence or reason not to do something.  I can’t do that because I am doing this.

You are never too busy to satisfy your desires

My observation busy people never seem to busy to do things that give them pleasure.  That is, a state of busyness  seldom seems to arise relative to desirable activities.  If you want to do it, you are not too busy.

Self Control/Accountability

Consider two similarly capable individuals tasked with five items.  Each has the same deadline.  In this illustration one person completes all five and one completes only two.

The person that failed advises, “I was just too busy to get every task done”.  The person who succeeded was committed to achieve the goal, they took accountability and planned out the activities, and measured their progress ongoing with full and strong intent to succeed.

The differentiator has nothing to do with the lame excuse of being too busy.

Accepting ownership, accountability coupled with a high level of integrity and desire to be the best will almost always overcome being too busy.

For high performers, being too busy does not exist.

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Giving Advice/Sharing Information Part 2

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Yesterday I posted about the importance of crafting your message for receptivity.  When passing information to someone else shaping it as advice or even coaching might be simple and direct but ineffective.

My recommended technique is the two way approach (so called sharing or sometimes collaborating), that is a partnership  where both sides have content that is important, even if not aligned.  It is gaining the alignment that is your goal, i.e, the intent of your message is more likely to be received.

Whats the point

When you want to tell someone something the goal is always mutual understanding.  Both you and the recipient are successful when both   have a common understanding.

This not necessarily agreement or committment to act, but common understanding is foundational to resolving differences.  Without agreement to the facts the interpretation of outcomes is unlikely to match.

Bad Signs

Feedback from the person you are sharing with, which includes comments like; “Thats not my problem” or “I don’t have any issues” , probably is a good indicator you have failed the receptivity test.

Don’t give up at this point, also don’t get hooked emotionally.  The other parties disinterest may engender upset on your part, this won’t help.  Remain calm and soldier on.

Take Accountability

When you commence your information share, take personal accountabilty.  If you are not able to obtain receptivity consider it your accountability to overcome the challenge.

It is not the other parties lack of interest at fault but rather your issue that you were unable to get their interest.  You can fix it but to do this you must believe you are accountable to do so.