All posts by steve@kerrzone.com

Reminisce on Request

In the early 1970’s I worked for Canadian Pacific Ltd.  This was a monolithic company that started as a private Canadian railroad company and then branched out into shipping (freighters), trucking, hotels, forestry products, air transport, mining and probably a few others.  Today all the pieces have been sold to various other companies and the railroad is all that remains.   In the 1970’s though they were a very large and successful conglomerate.  This of course is before it became popular for Corporations to go “back to their roots”

The Background

My job was a porter on the passenger train that went from Vancouver to Montreal every day.  That is one train left Vancouver and one left Montreal every day.  It took the train about 6 days to cross the country.  I traveled from  Vancouver to Winnipeg and back, a two and a half day journey each way.  The work schedule was 6 days on (3 out and 3 back, with an overnight in Winnipeg) and then 4 days off.  We were paid for 20 hours days (hey your porter is almost always on duty) so it was not bad money wise.

I don’t recall how many times I did the round trip but more than 10 for sure.  It’s a funny thing how hindsight works.  I was traveling frequently relaxing long trips through what could arguably be classified as some of the most beautiful natural scenery in the world.  Had I understood then what I know now,  I would have appreciated it much more, much more than viewing it just as a high paying job (I might have paid them).

The Story

From those years, a few stories stand out in my mind and over time I will probably share more of those but today’s interesting story is how a conglomerate like CP could stretch their muscles in those days.

On our way into Calgary news arrived of a derail in the Rockies east of Banff.   Our train was not going through.  CP brought buses (from the companies bus line) to the train station in Calgary and bused us to the Calgary airport where we took a CP Air jet to Kamloops (porters and passengers).  We were bused (via CP’s busline) to the Kamloops train station.  The porter crew and the passengers going west of Kamloops picked up the westbound train there, those whose original destination had been between Banff and Kamloops got the east bound train.   Hey if you can do it why not.

Progress

Of course today, all has changed.  Via rail runs the passenger train from Vancouver to Montreal (via Jasper not Banff) and it is not daily (evry 2nd day in the summer though) and a private company called the Rocky Mountaineer  runs a train from Vancouver to Calgary (as a tourist experience).   There is no cross country passenger train on the CP tracks any more (a pity).

There are other private train companies taking advantage of the rails in the Rockies, for example one that runs a half day train from Jasper to Dunster through the Yellow Head pass (and then buses you back) on the Jasper to Prince George part of the CN line.

 

Balance your way to Success

I once attended a town hall at the Bank of Montreal hosted by the CEO at the time, Tony Comper.

The gist of the presentation was how to reconcile what appeared on the surface to be competing Corporate priorities – grow revenue/ reduce expenses.  I mean you have to spend money to make money after all.

The point Mr Comper focused on was the need to focus on the holistic result (the ultimate goal).  In this case improved profitability.    If you have greater revenue produced at a lower cost it does not take a rocket scientist to determine profit will increase.

The real question here is finding the balance between increasing revenue and reducing cost such that as you succeed at one objective, it  feeds and supports the achievement of the other.  If this works both ways think of the momentum created.

Today’s musing is not about business success, the BMO example is just to frame the concept, which is in fact generic and can apply to any objective whether personal or business.

Like my blog of a few days ago on the art of war, this one on “balance your way to success” is just about ideas that can make your life easier and better.

What is it?

Balance as  a behavioral concept is not about compromise.  Nor is it “I can live with that”.   To successfully use this technique you must think in terms of “win/win”  (I can’t take credit for that concept by the way as it is firmly embedded in the Harvard Technique for Negotiation).

The key to this practice is to be clear on the goal.  In fact “focus on the goal”  Which of course means you have to have a very clear understanding of what it is.

Next determine what the objectives are to achieve the goals.

And finally optimize how the objectives are achieved so they complement each other (win/win), in essence the success of one feeds off the success of the other.  The process will naturally result in balanced objectives.

How about an example?

In this example the goal is to be more relaxed.

One objective is to achieve greater success at your employment; to receive more praise, feel less stress; be confident and comfortable in your long term prospects.

Another objective is to work less, shorter hours, experience more free time and not think about or focus on stressful things (veg out!)

On the surface these are competing objectives.  In fact working  working more efficiently with a greater focus and higher quality should lead to shorter hours and less thinking about work in down time.  Don’t think of the way to  achieve the first objective as working harder (longer) but rather use the time allocated to your employers wishes more effectively.  If you do this praise and success will come your and more free time too.

What’s my point?

This is pretty simple.  Think about what the goal is and what are the associated objectives to best achieve it before leaping in to solve for goal success.  Think it through.  To use a tired but accurate old phrase when it comes to achieving your goals work smarter not harder.  Think about it!

The Fractional Reserve System

Around the world the money supply is managed under a fractional reserve/ capital requirements system.  This is a great system for supporting the growth of a country’s economy.  There are some pitfalls though and their are economists that believe some if not all the current worldwide economic challenges can be attributed to the fractional reserve system.

What is it?

The fractional reserve concept is based on the theory that only a small percentage of money will be withdrawn from a bank at any time.    The bank keeps a minimum amount on deposits (i.e.,  that cannot be lent out) and lends the rest.  Over time the borrowers pay it back and as long as there is not a run on the bank that exceeds the amount of cash on hand at a given point all is fine.

Given the people the money was lent to spend it, ultimately it gets returned to the bank as a deposit.  As a deposit the amount can be lent again (to the reserve limit). You can see the cycle continues and the money supply grows.

NOTE: Some country’s regulate the amount of money bank’s actually hold based on capital requirements versus a mandated % reserve (Canada is one of these).

How about an example?

Consider a country with only one bank.  The central bank issues currency of $100, and to make the example simple all of this currency goes to Bob.  Bob deposits the $100 in the bank.  The bank is required to hold at least 3% but can lend $97.   The bank lends it to Jerry who spend it on a house Bob owns  (ie, he pay’s it to Bob)  Bob deposits the  $97 in the bank and they in turn lend all but 3%.  The bank is now holding  $5.91 in cash,  has liabilities of $197 (Bobs deposits) and assets of  $191.09 (the loans they made) plus the reserve cash.  The country’s money supply is now  $394.   The money supply has increased more than  288%.  And the cycle continues as the money is paid back, then lent out the to the reserve limit, then deposited, so more money to lend.  And so on.  The money supply grows and can be used to build stuff and sell it, and pay salaries and buy stuff.

So the system is all good, the economy grows, there is good liquidity, money is available when needed.  What can go wrong?

The upward cycle is dependent on goods and services being created and purchased.  These also need to maintain their value at least for the cycle to continued unimpeded.   Say you borrow $97 and buy a house.  If the value of the house drops to $50 you might walk away from the loan.  This puts the bank at risk of being able to return the depositors money.  Simply put this scenario can cause the upward spiral to go the other way (down).  Ooops.

What’s my point

The fractional reserve/ capital requirement economic system is extremely complex and I have grossly simplified it. .

There are many other factors and processes at play in our modern currency based economies but it all is underpinned by the money supply.

My intent is really to prick an interest which would lead you to research and knowledge gathering.   There are alternatives to our current currency based economies (e.g., barter systems/ money supplies based on a fixed standard).  And the world has tried some of these, for example the gold standard.

My own real question about the whole modern economic system questions the up and down cycle of the money supply that is intrinsic in the fractional reserve system – are we all really okay with that?

Hitch-hiking

I was listening to Sirius/XM satellite radio the other day.  My favorite station is Deep Tracks.   The station format is like FM Radio at it’s time of birth in the late 1960’s, early 1970’s.  The DJ’s played what they wanted, long songs, album tracks, themes – no top forty format.

A Bob Dylan track had just finished and the announcer was chatting about hitch-hiking in the 60’s, there was a reference to hitch-hiking in the Dylan tune.  He commented on how it was quite common and popular at the time.  Then added a little aside about a ride he had one-time where the driver casually stroked the announcer’s leg.  The announcer described how he just declined; the driver dropped him off.  Then our intrepid announcer just readied himself by the side of the road, stuck out his thumb and carried on seeking his next ride.  The story really struck home as I traveled that way frequently during my early teens up to the time I was sixteen and bought a car.   Interestingly (to me anyway) I had an almost identical experience.

Anyway, this got me to thinking this was a cool topic for a blog.  You don’t see much hitch-hiking today and I guess people could really wonder about it – or not.

What is it?

Simply put, “A thumb goes up, a car goes by” ……… (Listen to the tune Hitchin a Ride by Vanity Fair from 1970 – the song was popular just as hitchin was getting a bad name)

A driver stops, you hop in, chat amiably, go as far toward your destination as the driver is going, get out and go for the next ride.

So how do I get started?

Up until the beginning of the 70’s decade hitch-hiking was a safe, cheap and relatively reliable form of transportation.  For me anyway, I traveled this way for 100’s of rides (so safe), never paid (so free) and often got to my destination ahead of what the bus would have taken me (reliable and effective).

I would not actually suggest you try it today, so “NO” to getting started, but here’s another huge song on the theme from Credence Clearwater Revival released in 1971 that hit #6 on the billboard top 100.  While it lasted as a viable practice, like the man say’s, it was SWEET

Sweet Hitch-Hiker

The Art of War

Today’s post are some high level thoughts about an intriguing ancient Chinese text.  Amazing the level of logic, understanding and awareness within the human race over 1500 years ago.

My intent is more to titillate and get you interested in the book, not explain it to you.   Just the basic book on the original Art of War text is 40 pages or so and a couple of hours read.  There is some cool knowledge within the text, well worth exploring

What is it?

This is an ancient Chinese book often attributed to General Sun Tzu as author, thought to be written in mid 500 AD.  Scholars are divided on whether there were multiple authors and if the text began even earlier in the Han era (early to mid 200 AD).  Even the lifetime and events of Sun Tzu are unclear with the time period and accomplishments of his life (his bio) constantly being researched and defined.

This blog is about the text.  Given the original text is an ancient dialect it’s impossible to have an exact English translation.  That being said, the power in the text is the philosophical base of the content (however accurately translated).   Many argue that the text well fit’s the modern world not as a Philosophy of war but more a tombe on managing conflicts and winning (not necessarily a physical  battle but rather an objective)

So What’s in it for me?

Like most things you get out of it what you put into it.  Basically it is a set of ideas constructed as rules.  The practice of which helps you improve the likelihood of achieving your personal objectives.

A couple of my favorite thoughts, these are paraphrased not quotes (my strategic/philosophical interpretation in brackets). There are more than 10 of these rules in the book:

  • don’t engage in battle unless you know you are going to win (select objectives where chance of success is high).
  • know your enemy  (understand how the opponent thinks and reacts)

So how do I get started?

The first step obviously is to get a translation and read it – there are many of these with different interpretations and suggestions on how to practice the “rules”.

I have read several of these books and ultimately in my view the book you want is one that is a short simple direct translation (as direct as possible anyway given best English translation of ancient writings from China in 4th century). What I mean is you don’t necessarily needs the self help authors interpretations – try your own.

The beauty of the books is the fact it is really comprised of simple rules that work.  Some will resonate with you more than others.  (I mentioned a few of my favorites above).  Pick the things that map to your personal value system, practice them and it is likely you will get results.

 

Venture Capital

I don’t intend to get bogged down in a financial theme with my ongoing blogs, however a discussion I had today about Coursera (a company that provides access to MOOC’s – massively open online courses) triggered a discourse about venture capitalists, so it’s on my mind and it is interesting (“Interesting to whom?” says my significant other)

What is it?

Say I have some money I want to invest.  Standard investment vehicles options include, of course, equity, fixed income, real estate, mutual funds/ETF’s,  etc.  I could also take the entrepreneur route and use my capital to fund my great idea; my venture so to speak.  Or, I can take the lazy person’s way out and back some other entrepreneur’s great venture.  This is not really less work as I would need to do due diligence  to mitigate the risk my capital was being subjected too and probably provide some sage advice and wisdom (to help ensure my capital was used wisely.)  Ultimately I would get some ownership piece  of the venture  (i.e., shares representing my % stake) or perhaps a royalty arrangement.  As the business grows and makes money and becomes more valuable I can return my capital and make a profit from either ongoing dividends (or royalties) or sale of my stake  for more than I invested.

How about an example?

First comes the idea (and of course it is someones idea and they have the desire, motivation and skills to execute it).  For example, a takeout restaurant that sells shoes on the side – combining a healthy lifestyle with good food (very trendy in today’s market) We could call it Wok with Steve.  Anyway, lease, lease hold improvements, furnishing, kitchen equipment, professional consulting (lawyers- yuk)  etc, all cost $100,000.  Based on a solid business plan (remember this is just a mythical example) positive cash flow won’t be realized for six months.  Given the first six months of operation will cost $50,000 – food stock (leveraged), salaries etc. the minimum start up is $150.000.  So our trusty entrepreneur sells the venture capitalist on his idea (using of course his fabulous business plan) and gives him 60% of the company for $150,000.  Even though our trendy entrepreneur put in no capital he gets 40% of the company for the idea and all the hard start up work.    Our fearless venture capitalist has studied the business plan and is convinced his 60% share can be sold via IPO (initial purchase offering) or back to the entrepreneur or maybe a competitor for $300,000 in 2 years.  This of course is based on the revenue projections, business growth, contained expenses and so on.  So our friendly venture capitalist makes a 50% a year return on his money, of course there is some risk (or a lot of risk).  And let’s not forget our business owner, with a stake worth $200,000 for all his hard work.

So how do I get started?

Well there is “Dragon’s Den”.  Or perhaps you can think of the next face-book or you-tube idea, the dollar figures for that kind of venture are much greater than my example – start-up challenges probably greater too.  Venture capitalist’s will salivate and line up to give you money.

Or perhaps you could be like Vancouver entrepreneur Marcus Frind who stared “Plenty of Fish” on line dating service in 2004, with no venture capital.  He just grew the business reinvesting the profits ($ten million annual profit by 2008 while working 10 hours a week).  So come 2015 and he owns the company (no venture capitalist involved) and decides to get his investment back (whatever 10 hours a week is worth).  Match.com purchases it from him for $575 million.  Not a bad return on his part for 11 years work.  I guess this might make you think about doing it without venture capital (beyond your own that is)

Value Investing

What is it

When you buy something, say a pair of jeans, you use what you know to assign a value.  For example brand new levis 407 boot cut might be worth $80 to you.  When you see them on sale in Winner’s for $50 the purchase seems like a good value.  Given it would be hard to find a pair for less than say $70 the price for that design, quality and brand leads to the value decision.   Purchasing equity in a company is basically the same thing.  The cost per share is just an indication of the value of the equivalent piece of company represented by 1 share.

How about an example?

Let’s say kerrzone.com has issued 1 share (and one share only).  If kerzone’s equipment and other real assets were estimated to  worth $10,000 and the share was being sold for just $1000, there would be a strong argument that this was a great value investment.  Arguably you could buy the share and sell all the assets and make $9000 clear just like that.  The caveat of course is the worth of the assets – could they really be sold for the stated $10,000?  What if the sale price was actually $100, whoops!

Remember in the real world the company’s value is complicated by things like intangible assets (intellectual property, worth of the brand, future profit growth, etc)

So how do I pick these value investments?

Talk about a loaded question.  If there were a simple answer investors in the equity market would all be doing fine.  The short answer is hard work – analysis.  There is no other way and there is no exact process or method to say the analysis is sure fire.  That being said though there are plenty of examples where hard work has gotten results – more so that where luck has succeeded. 

MORE TO COME

In future posts I will share some of the analysis methods that work, why they work and most importantly proof that they work.

Let the musing begin

Getting Started – in the beginning …..
I have been thinking about blogging for some time. Recently I purchased a new NAS (network attached storage). These days NAS is a bit of a misnomer as the hardware and included software do a lot more than just storage management. In my case I have created a number of virtual servers both Windows and Linux O/S based to back up existing hardware servers I have. As well I have multiple web servers, therefore can publish multiple web sites.

To keep a long story short it is easy to install MySQL and WordPress, so I did and hence the blog.

And what are going to blog about? (asked my significant other)
As the title says, I plan to muse about nothing (very Seinfield ish) in a humorous way (remember humor is in the eye of the beholder)

TODAY’S MUSING

Bought a new suit today – first in ten years. Last time I wore a suit was for a security conference at CSIS headquarters in 2012.

It was a very pleasant shopping experience, basically buying a single suit for a single purpose at a “mom and pop” shop. No Moore’s or Tip Top tailors for me this time- thank- you very much.

That’s it for today’s rumination but as the terminator say’s “I’ll be back”