Category Archives: Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Are you feelin Alright!

How you feel is part of a thought process.  This process is centric to YOUR brain.   The brain is not autonomous for most things (exceptions are basic things like normal  breathing).  In fact, the behaviours and feelings derived from  the data you receive from your brain are yours to control and yours alone.

The brain does not action, it provides data which you use to decide and implement action.  Therefore, logically, you will never feel bad.  Why would anyone decide to feel bad.

The operative descriptor here is “bad”.  By definition the things described as bad are negative.  Negative is typically not a desired state of being.

People do feel bad

The simpliest explanation for choosing negative feelings and the associated depressed and sad behavior is based on the analysis of the data.

You parsed the data provided by your brain and decided the most appropriate internal response was to feel bad.

Personally I wonder what the value equation is.  The data could be a death of a close friend or relative, loss of something you hold dear and a thousand other things as simple as dark cold days.

My own approach is to feel good, regardless.  Why not?  In truth, up to the point of my own death, anything but feeling good, upbeat and happy seems pointless.

I choose how to feel, act and behave and logic dictates sad unhappy feelings make little sense.  Maybe I am part Vulcan.

Filling the Information Void

I often observe how social groups tend to fill information gaps by making up the data. This is the foundation of gossip. It begins with a factual foundation and then grows organically.

Most often, groups of colleagues, acquaintances and co-workers   begin with the kernal and fill in the gaps arriving at conclusions which are passed on as completedly factual.

For Example

An organizations leadership decide to be candid and communicate accross the organization that spending has reached unsustainable levels and cost cutting must ensue.

The work of identifying the best approaches begins but this is where the transparency disappears.  Large groups of the organizations human resources have no insight into the detailed planning.

The result is speculation, assumptions and sadly the new reality is arrived at.  Although there is probably little alignment with the actual plans developed by the organizations leadership (and known to few) the majority come to believe what they made up to fill the information gap.

Of course, this commonplace organizational behaviour can have very negative impacts.  For example, strong capable resources the organization needs to retain, depart.  Largely because they are convinced the layoff axe is imminent (although that might not be the case at all).

The unfortunate fact is this type of scenario is totally avoidable.  The mistake of not holding broad open disccussions about the detailed cost cutting strategies, sharing plans and ideas ongoing as they develop, leads to people creating their own answers.

Without the benefit of accurate information this answers can be far off reality and lead to unwanted consequences.

Equity Market Supply and Demand

At a recent Reuters Investment management conference, presenters suggested the growth in Corporate earnings during the past year is in the double digits.

Credit Suisse reported an annual increase in global wealth of $17 trillion U.S. dollars, rising to an overall estimated total of $280 trillion.  This growth linked to increases in Corporate earnings.

This capital accumulation needs to be employed whether as venture capital, equity  or other investments.  That is, within the constraints of risk, as your capital increases you have a desire to employ it to get more capital.

Availability of Equity

On the flip side of growing capital are equity investments.  Although not a unique vehicle, investing directly in a companies stock via direct purchase, mutual funds or exchange traded funds (ETF), is a popular way to continue to grow your wealth.

At the aforementioned Reuters conference there was also some solid data presented indicating the supply of new equities was currently experiencing a net growth of zero.

Market Value Rises

And so, we arrive at a simple but logical explanation for the current explosion in the value of equity markets – world wide.   It is probable, one of the factors driving price gains is the ready availability of capital versus the flat supply of available equities to invest in.

Simply put demand exceeds supply.

The Predicted Market Correction

For months now many analysts have noted the precipitous heoghts equity markets have risen to, predicting a correction or a crash.  Historically the economic fundamentals do not support this so it is puzzling for some.

I believe the current state of prices is to some extent just a reflection of supply and demand and won’t change until either of those factors are altered, i.e., more equities available for sale or less capital accrued.  Both things are linked to overall economic activities.

Delegate or Transfer Accountability

Managers delegate, leaders transfer accountabilty.  The objective of delegation is to get work done through others.  It is based on a prescriptive (do this, do that) principle.

Transfer of accountabilty enables others to do the right work at the right time in the right way.  This encourages initiative, innovation and builds confidence in others.  That is both their confidence and, based on the outcomes, potentially your own confidence.

Delegation

Good delegation requires a high degree of clarity around requirements and strong agreement to them.  Based on the directions the outcomes or results are also clear.

In conformance with the principles of the Stacey matrix typically the management styles associated with delegation are rational, judgemental or political.

The manager or supervisor focuses on conformity to instruction which should lead to the expected results.  This is very much a command and control methodology.

Transfer Accountability

In this case the assignments are task driven.  The goals and objectives are largely related to deciding the best way to solve the problem, issue or achieve the goal, and then execute.

The progress expectations are not closley monitored.  Failure is an option and when it occurs it is both a reason to celebrate (you tried) and a learning opportunity.

The exercise of accountability requires some authority and the granting of this to others typically results in a rise in personal confidence (something like you have faith in me so I should have faith in myself)

Getting things done through others

Both delegation and transfer of accountability are approaches with benefits and risks.  The context is often important in determining the best approach, or balance thereof, in any given situation however in the long run enabling others to take accountability where feasible will lead to more innovative, creative and higher quality results.

The Stacey Matrix

In 2011, Professor Ralph Stacey published the Stacey diagram also known as  the Stacey Matrix.  His objective was to describe management techniques as they relate to the degree of agreement and certainty within the organizational environment.

Ultimately the concepts comtemplated within the matrix can be leveraged as a tool to assist with choosing between management or leadership approaches for a specific issue or decision.

Close to Certainty/Close to Agreement

In this zone the decision making is described as rational.  Using data from the past we predict the future and plan and monitor our actions accordingly.  Basically there is agreement to both the approach to making decisions and what the result will be.

Close to Agreement/Medium Level of Uncertainty

Decision making leans toward the judgemental.  We agree on the issues but are not sure of the outcomes.  Best judment is employed.

Close to Uncertainty/Medium Level of Agreement

In this case decison making is political and resolves around a certainty of available and achievable outcomes but there is a lack of agreemet as to which outcomes to persue.  So we manipulate.

High Uncertainty/Far from  Agreement

This is a zone of chaos where traditional methods of planning and visioning break down.  This is considered a zone of chaos. Typically the organizational culture becomes one of avoidance.  If this kind of decision making is continued over longer periods the results are usually disastrous.

Medium Uncertainty /Medium Agreement

This is where complex decision making occurs, most often the results are innovative.  In this zone traditional approaches like rational, judgemental and political do not work.  The decisions are in and of themselves arrived at with innovative and different approaches.  Operating in this zone requires leaders and mangers to be highly creative.

Discontent

Oscar Wilde (Irish poet and playwright) wrote “Discontent is the first step of progress of a man or a nation.”   This could lead to a conclusion the contentent equates to stagnation.

In all probability dissatisfaction with ones circumstances can motivate action.  This action can be foundational to progress on a larger scale.

Consider the invention of the wheel.  Prior to the wheel transportation consisted of walking.  Walking is tiring and can be a slow way to cover a great distance.

I need a better way

Some poor sole with aching feet, late for an appointment considers their plight.  There must be a better way to travel.  The discontent with walking leads to the invention of another way to travel great distances without inconveniencing the feet.

Not an Absolute

Discontent certainly can be one of the factors driving progess but it is by no means singular nor uniquely responsible for  human advancement.

If contentment reigned would progress be stifled.  I believe that is a real possibility the rate of progress might be diminished,  but certainly other motivating factors like ambition and the quest for answers would come into play.

Seeking improvement is not only motivated by a desire to resolve unsatisfying circumstances but undoubtedly it plays a role.  So, to Osacar Wilde I say perhaps the addition of “sometimes” ,in front of discontent, would make your statement more accurate.

Still an interesting thought even if not universally applicable.

SPOC

Single Point of Contact (SPOC) is a way for organizations to narrow the possibility that critical information might go to the wrong place.   It can be a person or a department.

A help desk for technolgy support is a good example of this.  A central help desk can ensure that issues (perhaps with a common root cause) are collected, recorded and initially triaged together.

This avoids multiple groups from working on the same problems in isolation of each other potentially causing rework or duplicate work or just confusion.

Single Point of Failure

A help desk can use special applications to track issues, automated, voice and email response together with resource scheduling to help ensure incoming issues do not get overlooked and enough resources are on hand to cover the volume of issues.

In the case of a single point of contact being an individual this is not the case.  Take for example the case where a specific skill and expertise (e.g., specialized business or technology knowledge) is limited to a single source.

Initial contact needs to flow through this source.  In these cases the benefits of SPOCcan be undermined by the fact you now have a single point of failure.

This can become a road block to responding to incoming requests, cause errors due to inadequate capacity to handle too high a volume of contacts and of course the biggest issue might be if the SPOC gets hit by a bus.

Is there someone with enough knowledge to fill in for them?

The bottom line is if you are using a SPOC be very mindful of, and mitigate against, the risk of having a single point of failure.  Typically is the risk occurs the results are not optimal to say the least.

Going with the default

Regular readers will be well aware in my belief we are accountable and control our destinies.  You choose how to interpret the world around you, so choose wisely.

Suprisingly though, it occured to me today, sometimes I personally prefer the default result.  That is not to say I give up my responsibilty for controlling my own destiny, just that on occassion I do choose to let fate decide.

What to do?

In its simplest form, personal decision making is just an answer to the question, what should I do?  Gathering the data, weighing the options, considering the pros and cons is my normal path.

The logical analysis is more objective and less emotional . In some cases where an easy decision is not apparent, that is you are on the fence,  maybe letting circumstance drive the conclusion is not a bad approach.

For Example

We are living longer lives, this is a stastical fact in most of the worlds highly developed countries.  Most of these countries have built structures around retirement at age 65.

Things like pension, old age medical benefits, price discounts, etc, are all designed with the target age of 65.  Or I should say they were, that is slowly changing with talk of 70 being the new 65.

So, the question arises. for some, retire at 65 or even a bit earlier or keep working and retire later.

If you are on the fence, you could keep working until forcibly retired,  then the decision is made for you.  Easier, if not better.  Issue resolved by circumstance and no problem as you could go either way.

Revenue, Expense and Service

Most organizations, whether run for profit or otherwise, live or die on the balance between funds for operations, cost of operations and the quality of the resulting  product or service.

This applies regardless of the organizational function, e.g., government, corporate, charatible, educational, other non profit and so on.

Of course, governments are a bit of a special case in that they seem to be able to overspend without dire consequence, to a point anyway.  That is governments have a much larger tolerance for deficit spending than most other types of organization.

Getting the Balance Right

Given there are only three parameters, it might seem easy to set the organizational goals.  Simply put, maximize revenue, minimize cost and give the stakeholders what they want, i.e., the product or service provided by the organization should exceed the users expectations.

Not surprisingly, in practice, it is far more complex.  Before maximizing revenues or minimizing expenses both the sources and the integration income, cost and quality come into play.

Reducing cost could reduce quality, resulting in a lower price for the product or service and thus lower revenue.  Or higher quality could result in lower demand due to a higher cost of goods leading to lower sales due to affordabilty issues.

There are in fact a wide myriad of combinations and scenarios to consider.

Also revenues can come from a variety of sources, many which are somewhat out of the organizations control.  Things like donations, government handouts, revenue from sales of goods or services, investment income and the list goes on.

The point, developing clear and simply strategies and execution plans for managing the intricat dance between income, expense and outputs is not easy.

Ultimately though, no matter how difficult, of all the things an organization does, strategizing, planning, executing and monitoring expenses, revenues and quality is the most critical activity to ensure organizational success.

 

Seeing the Future

The past is indicative of the future.  Looking backwards can guide you forward.

Most investment information, things like analyst reports, prospectus, financial projections often carry warnings about forward looking statements.

The purpose of this caution is really to mitigate litigation.  You told me this investment would have a 19% return.  The future predictions I speak of are not quesses with a bias, but rather informed based on events.

Behaviour Focused Interviewing

More and more hiring managers are using behaviour focused interviewing and associated research into a candidates past accomplishments.

The results of a number of studies show a direct correlation  between  behaviour focused interviewing and new employee retention  and performance results.

This technique is simply leveraging the concept that the past can be used to predict the future.  For example if a person has a track record of success under stress if you hire them into a role with a lot of stress it is not a stretch to expect them to be successful.

Not Infallible nor Absolute

The idea that the past equals the future can be a very dangerous postion to about.  Indicative simply means a specific result might be more likely and is worth considering.  It does not mean the future result will be a certainty.

Past performance, be it an employee, stock price dividend or even a winning race horse can definitely lower the risk of you making a failed choice as is frequently noted with  forward looking investment advice, do not throw caution to the wind.