Tag Archives: prediction risk

Seeing the Future

The past is indicative of the future.  Looking backwards can guide you forward.

Most investment information, things like analyst reports, prospectus, financial projections often carry warnings about forward looking statements.

The purpose of this caution is really to mitigate litigation.  You told me this investment would have a 19% return.  The future predictions I speak of are not quesses with a bias, but rather informed based on events.

Behaviour Focused Interviewing

More and more hiring managers are using behaviour focused interviewing and associated research into a candidates past accomplishments.

The results of a number of studies show a direct correlation  between  behaviour focused interviewing and new employee retention  and performance results.

This technique is simply leveraging the concept that the past can be used to predict the future.  For example if a person has a track record of success under stress if you hire them into a role with a lot of stress it is not a stretch to expect them to be successful.

Not Infallible nor Absolute

The idea that the past equals the future can be a very dangerous postion to about.  Indicative simply means a specific result might be more likely and is worth considering.  It does not mean the future result will be a certainty.

Past performance, be it an employee, stock price dividend or even a winning race horse can definitely lower the risk of you making a failed choice as is frequently noted with  forward looking investment advice, do not throw caution to the wind.