Tag Archives: future

Leveraging the Past and Future

Ground your present through reference to the experiences of the past and the prophecies for the future.  These things can be key to helping us be successful in the present.

Things that occur in the past or we perceive as future opportunities are not a solute predictors of the present but deserve our consideration as potential influencers.

Past Outcomes equal Present Facts

The past represents facts, that is they are things that are known and can be demonstrated  as being true.  The past occurred and the outcomes are a real although interpreting what they mean can be somewhat subjective.

Predicting future events with accuracy depends depends on how much is known about the options and their potential likelihood.

Using future predictions together with analysis of past outcomes needs to be done with careful and considered analysis.  Other factors must be taken into account as well.

What has happened or prognosis for what will happen are important, even critical decision making parameters relative to ensuring the best decision but they should not be used at the expense of all else (e.g., intuition).

Repeating the Past, Ignoring the Future

Consideration of what has transpired in the past before acting in the present is obviously an important factor in avoiding the repeat of sub-optimal outcomes.

Likewise using likelihood estimations of future projections avoids performing actions in the present which will not conform with what the future will be.

Simply paying attention to what has and will happen in order to make good decisions seems like basic common sense yet surprisingly these things are often ignored.

Predictions

The new year commenced a week ago. During the past few weeks the media is full of looks back and forward. The commentators, analysts and subject matter experts estimate what will happen in the future and/or what will be a consequence of something that happened during 2019.

Predictions can be used to guide our behaviour. Theoretically, past behaviour can be a predictor of future behaviour. Unfortunately it is also true future behaviour may be total unrelated to the the past.

Speculating how to leverage future events to our advantage is a little bit like gambling. Predictions create the underlying logic that helps us believe we are making rationale choices.

The Economy

The Canadian economy, in essence key impacts on jobs and income, Can be a telltale sign of posperity to come, or lack thereoff.

This can be a self fullfilling prophecy. When consumers believe income risk is low and product availability and pricing prospects are good, then the propensity to consume rises.

Greater demand fuels the need for greater supply and voila the market economy spirals up. So, what the population believes lies ahead in the future can in fact influence the future.

Propaganda can be used by governments and corporations to drive desired behaviours. This works to a point but, often and some time in the cycle, reality rudely intrudes and crash.

All the predictions and proclaimations lose their shine and credibility. Smoke and mirrors can work for a while but ultimately reality intrudes.

So what is in store for 2020. Who knows for sure. Based on the past year though my call would be whatever happens it will be unpredictable.

 

 

Seeing the Future

The past is indicative of the future.  Looking backwards can guide you forward.

Most investment information, things like analyst reports, prospectus, financial projections often carry warnings about forward looking statements.

The purpose of this caution is really to mitigate litigation.  You told me this investment would have a 19% return.  The future predictions I speak of are not quesses with a bias, but rather informed based on events.

Behaviour Focused Interviewing

More and more hiring managers are using behaviour focused interviewing and associated research into a candidates past accomplishments.

The results of a number of studies show a direct correlation  between  behaviour focused interviewing and new employee retention  and performance results.

This technique is simply leveraging the concept that the past can be used to predict the future.  For example if a person has a track record of success under stress if you hire them into a role with a lot of stress it is not a stretch to expect them to be successful.

Not Infallible nor Absolute

The idea that the past equals the future can be a very dangerous postion to about.  Indicative simply means a specific result might be more likely and is worth considering.  It does not mean the future result will be a certainty.

Past performance, be it an employee, stock price dividend or even a winning race horse can definitely lower the risk of you making a failed choice as is frequently noted with  forward looking investment advice, do not throw caution to the wind.