Tag Archives: conclusions

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Missing Pieces

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Sometimes we do not have all the information needed to determine the best course of action.  After all, this is about things we don’t know, which can include things we don’t even know we don’t know.

These missing pieces are not always important but sometimes they are critical in such a way that it is impossible to do the right thing or succeed without considering them.

Is Something Missing

Looking for missing information begins with assessing the completeness and accuracy of what you know.  Putting together the known facts can lead to questions.

This concept is the foundation of a good mystery novel.  As the author unfolds the story facts are withheld but the information provided is enough for the hero of the story to determine that something is missing .

One of the pleasures for the reader is to match wits against the story detective and figure it out as well, before the author discloses all.

Looking for the Missing Piece

Knowing something is missing helps the search for it.  If you are convinced things don’t add up and a reasonable conclusion cannot be achieved without more info you are more likely to be motivated to search hard.

Believing something unknown exists drives us to search until we find it.  Giving up is frustrating and rare.  When we believe there is an answer most of us will hang in their until we find it or at least believe we have found it.

Watch out for the red herring.

Be Wary

When making an assessment, before concluding give careful consideration as to wether you have the complete picture.  It can save you from grief and missteps.

 

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

What you see is not what you get

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Understanding what you see, hear and feel is an oft underated skill.  Frequently people take direct meaning from  their sensual  observations whithout taking time to consider.

The data you gather via your senses is not information.  That is, it has not been contextualized but is just a raw interpretation.  Parsing the data, that is analysing a string of symbols for syntax , is needed to transform it into information.

Why bother?

Turning what you percieve through sight, hearing, touch and so on requires effort.  What is the value proposition?  The fictional character Sherlock Holmes provide a good example of possible outcomes when observations are not taken at face value.

Sherlock often astounded the other characters in the mystery novels by deducing information based on the data in ways that were not imminently obvious to most (both readers and other fictional characters)

The approach to considering the data, treating it like a logic puzzle and following the trail to uncover valuable information (i.e., solve the mystery) appears simple, yet it is not a common practice.

The danger of directly following our default interpretation of what we observe can be ,costly, painful or embarrassing.  Who has not arrived at a confusing point or frustrated others by following erroneous conclusions.

Take your time

A key underlying approach to understanding is not to rush.  Quick thinking has gotten many a person into trouble.  Check your conclusions before acting by running the possibilities through your mind, pause, consider, then proceed.

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Critical Thinking

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Agatha Christies iconic murder mystery detective, Hercule Poirot, often explains that solving a murder is about using the little grey cells with method.

Focusing on both the answer and the question can lead to false conclusions.  Critical thinking is process based, that is focusing on the how, not the why or wherefore.

Unbiased Analysis

The key to critical thinking is drawing conclusions based on facts that can be defined objectively.

The classic murder mystery drama, of which Mrs. Christie is the grand dame, presents obvious circumstances that taken with a purely subjective perspective, lead to an incorrect conclusion.

These novels are of course entertainment but they are based on an invaluable phliosophy, follow a process rather than jump to conclusions.

The Greek Route

The term critical thinking is derived from the greek word kritikos (critic).  The foundation of critical thinking is the act of developing a critique.

That is, carefully examining the facts and  laying out the rationale for the conclusion that satisfies all the facts.  Filling in the gaps with assumptions or logical conclusions is not appropriate.

There is no Correct Answer

Philosophy is basically the practice of critical thinking.  The underlying principle of philosophy  is not to arrive at the conclusion but rather to define and explain the path you followed to reach a conclusion.

A friend of mine who studies many philosophical concepts noted that great philosophers can debate opposite conclusions equally well.

The talent is not so much as to arrive at the conclusion as it is to persuade others that it is the correct conclusion by describing the method by which it was obtained.

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

How much Research is Enough?

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For decisions, recommendations or suggestions it makes sense to investigate and gather supporting rationale for your conclusion/recommendation /suggestion.

This research can be wide and varied or narrow and focused.  It can take hours,days, months or years to complete.  The results may be fully objective, mainly subjective or as is most often the case, somewhere inbetween.

The Research Balance

High value decisions are arrived at by spending the least amount of effort to achieve the highest quality result.  This leads to the basic question, how much effort should I expend on research?

How much effort is better spent on positioning, marketing and manipulating to sell the recommended solution?

To that end how about making it look like a lot of time and effort was spent on research, that is having your solution accepted because it looks well researched, really though its just effective use of smoke and mirrors.

Things to watch out for

Don’t let the consultant, salesman, researcher, etc pull the wool over your eyes with their magical recommendations and suggestions to support the best decision.

Consider:

  • Does the solution advocate have a personal vested interest in the outcome.
  • Is there a plethoria of supporting data (I always worry this is asign of misdirection)?
  • Is the path to the conclusion twisted with multiple branches or just straight and to the point?
  • Can the supporting data be replicated (objectively)?
  • Was the research conducted for it’s own sake, that is took a long time so appears well thought out but is really just mainly focused on putting the researcher in a good light and justifying their existence.