Category Archives: Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Scotty I need more power ……

As I sat down to write today’s blog the power went off in the neighborhood.   The traffic lights, street lights both in my immediate neighborhood and the one directly to the east (which I can see out my bedroom window were all out).

My blogging was put off for the 30 minutes or so while the power was out.  Desktop computers don’t work when the power is out.  The pads were working but there was no LAN connection.

In Edmonton Alberta, Canada’s most northerly city with a population of over a million, in the middle of winter a power outage can be a scary thing.  The central heating needs electric power to run and if it’s not available for a while it get’s cold.

Makes you think

Sitting reading my book waiting for the power to come back,  with a few candles spread around,  which my wife had found and lit, I realized how critical our dependency on electric power has become.  That is, for most large city dwellers.   Rural dwellers are probably a bit more independent.

We are lucky it was so short and I realize there are lot of bad weather related power outages in other parts of North America, during the bad weather seasons, that last a lot longer than the 30 minutes we waited.

Still it is pretty sobering to contemplate how dependent we have become on electricity.   I guess it was a bit of a wake up call for me.  I wonder how many people are running out to Canadian Tire and picking up a gas power generator as we speak.

And the good news

On the positive side, this short outage was something to blog about.  On the really negative side, it will take me hours to reboot, check and recover all my hardware and software infrastructure.  Ah well.

Balancing your checkbook

The federal finance ministry has confirmed the predictions for a balanced budget this fiscal year are not accurate – instead we are looking at a continued deficit, for years to come.

The liberal party have announced the tax cuts (and tax increases) they planned as part of their election platform will not be revenue neutral as previously stated, but rather lead to increased deficit spending.  I am shocked.  A political promise during an election campaign that was not accurate, how can this be?

What happens if you don’t balance your checkbook?

Whether talking about personal, corporate or public accounting if you write checks totaling more  than your cash on hand there are only two outcomes.  You can borrow to cover the deficit or you can declare bankruptcy  (there are variations of declaring bankruptcy with different results, but we won’t get into that here).

Borrowing means …………..

Obviously at some point you need to pay it back.  In an extreme sense borrowing can lead to “mortgaging the future”.  Simply put a debt cycle that cannot be recovered from.

The other big downside of borrowing is the cost of doing so.  It is not free.   About 10% of the Canadian federal budget goes toward interest payments.  I can think of a lot better ways to spend this money.

The government of Canada has been making interest payments on debt my entire life (and that is not a short period of time).  The obvious conclusion is there is no intention, nor political will to retire the National debt.  Is this really fair to future generations of Canadians?

Debt is a way of using others money (at a cost) to obtain benefit now.  This approach makes sense if you expect to increase your assets over time, that is  if you think you will have more income or liquid cash in the future, why not spend it now (at a reasonable carrying cost) because you will be able to pay it back later.   This lets you have the pleasure of that nice car or home now (even though you cannot afford to buy it outright) because the future is bright.

For Canada this logic does not hold true.  Yes, the country is growing and we do expect increased gross national products year by year; However, the spending today is far outstripping the growth predictions of the future and in reality there is no reasonable expectation of catching up and becoming debt free.

Is it not high time to bite the bullet and pay down the debt?

Looking Good!

One of my favorite authors, Frederick Forsyth published his first action suspense thriller in 1971 (Day of the Jackal).  I just finished reading his autobiography and found out he lost his entire savings (from the numerous best selling novels and associated revenue streams following his first) to fraud in the early 1990’s.  His investment manager was running a classic Ponzi scheme.

When is good not good?

This got me thinking about a quote from Bill Gates, “If you can’t make it good, at least make it look good.”

In the classic Ponzi scheme you gain your investor’s trust by making it look like you are a skilled and clever money manager who can earn them a large return.   That is, might not be good, but looks good.

How is it done?

Using the basic psychological principal that underlies gambling addiction, Ponzi schemers provide actual intermittent rewards that seem fabulous.

Basically using money from new investors they actually pay the old investors real cash at an inflated rate (e.g., 25% or more).  Ultimately though they stop paying most investors except through supposed reinvestment of earnings supported through forged records make it look the strong returns continue (after they have gained their trust).  On and off when an investor needs money paid out, free cash from new investors is used.

These investment managers are not really good at investing but they make it look good.

Looking Good!

Today’s post is just a reminder that “looking good” is just that, a perceived conclusion not supported by facts beyond your visual input.  Remember that old adage, “what you see is not always what you get”.

Of course, there is a caution here.  Living your life being suspicious of everything bridges on paranoia (fear of things that are not real) and is to be avoided.

There is a happy balance between checking and trusting and each of us must find the place that works best personally.  In the case of Mr. Forsyth (based on the description in his autobiography) he just accepted the fraud (managing money was not his thing) and moved on writing more best selling novels and earning even more money.  Good attitude (at least I perceive it to be so).

Choosing your investment vehicle

As noted in yesterday’s post you can use your money to make money (generally called investing).  Of course, you need some money to start.  You can engage in money making activities and save some money to use for investing ( basically working for others or working for yourself at activities that generate cash).  Or you can borrow money from others to invest (using others money to make money is often called leverage and results in higher rates of return, but more risk).

What’s the best way to invest my money?

Unless you are engaging in money laundering (which has a slightly different objective, although similar) the object of investing for most people is to earn the greatest return over the shortest time with the lowest risk of incurring losses.

Unfortunately such a generic objective is too high level to measure and thus difficult for ongoing management (i.e., determining how you are doing and modifying approaches accordingly on an ongoing basis).  The best first step is to define the underlying goals with a little more specificity.  The second step is to use these goals to select investments that match to the goals (more on that in future posts)

Here are the three key things to consider:

  1. ) Target Return –  Ask yourself what level of return on investment would satisfy your needs.  Many Corporations I have worked for in the past set this bar at various levels (known as the hurdle rate)  usually somewhere between 22% and 40 %, but for the individual investor this is probably unrealistic and the current economic environment needs to be considered when determining your goal.

    Many use the performance of stock market indexes over time as benchmarks.  I consider this a useful influence but personally also include my personal needs;  amount of effort I intend to expend, my level of competitiveness and other factors like these that are largely personal to me.  Taken all together I come up with my personal target – this is the annual return I am shooting for.  I revisit this goal once a year.

  2. ) Time Frame –  Determine the duration you expect for your investments to continue to perform.  For example this could be until I die or for a specified time frame.   You might select to invest for ten years after which you are okay spending the capital and reducing investment return, even down to nil.  The latter case would usually apply when you calculate after spending starts the capital won’t run out before you still need it.

    In some cases you may engage in a specific investment you only expect to produce income for X number of years (e.g., a diamond mine with limited reserves of say 10 years) and this goal should be understood at the start of the investment to avoid surprise.

  3. Appetite for Risk –  This is the most complex considerations.  Libraries of books exist on this topic and I do not intend to fully explore it in this post (I have written some posts in the past just about managing risk and will be writing others in the future).

    For this summary of key factors, the main point is really the importance of understanding and defining your risk tolerance in conjunction with the other two factors (target return and duration) before investing.  Overtime the amount of risk acceptable to you will change and the risk events you actually encounter with ongoing investments will be one key influence on these changes (bit once, shy twice).

    Remember, as a general rule lower risk tolerance over leads to lower returns and most stable long term performance.

Interest, Dividend and Capital Gains

Using money to make money is a corner stone of our world economy.   Today’s post is a high level look at ways you can use your money to make money.

 

Basic Options

You can either use your money to:

  •  create a business that generates revenues (entrepreneurship) by using your own money and or money from others (leverage).
  • you can give your money to others  either to use and return or to purchase ownership of an asset or business.

Basic types of investing

  • equity
  • fixed income
  • investment capital (purchase ownership)

Ways to make money investing

Basically for the privilege of using your money you expect a return on your investment.  This comes in the form of either interest, dividends or capital gains or your return on a particular investment can be a combination of all three.

The main variables to consider are:

  • term of the investment – length of time the investment is committed for and whether it is redeemable or not redeemable until maturity
  • risk – likelihood the investment will be returned (on demand or on maturity or when sold).
  • fixed or variable returns –  structure of the investment compensation can be set and guaranteed or linked to market indexes, can change the performance of the object of the investment (value of the purchase) and with specific defined events.
  • tax – in Canada interest, dividends and capital gains are  taxed  at different rates.

Interest

This is a fixed payment, usually a percentage of the money you invested.  It can be paid in any frequency from daily to multi-year intervals.   The amount of the interest paid depends on the type of investment.  Interest based investments are often called fixed income investments and are usually of a lower risk but this can vary.  This income has the worst tax treatment,  taxed at the same rate as you employment income

Dividends

This is a fixed payment from a company in which you have made an equity investment (that is giving them your money made you a part owner of the company through shares – the more shares you buy the more ownership you get.)  Dividends can also be paid on varying frequencies.  The risk is related to the company operations – if it thrives and makes lot of money the dividend stream continues and if not, well it could stop.  Dividends are taxed a preferred rate which usually works out to lower than your marginal tax rate for employment and interest income.

Capital Gains

Capital gain is simply when you sell your ownership in the investment and get more money than you paid for it (Capital loss is the opposite).  The frequency is obviously based on the buy sell cycle.  You could invest in a business and hold the investment for ten years and than sell it for a profit (which is a capital gain) or you could buy it and sell it in 3 days for a profit.

Risk is obviously related to the ability of what you purchased to  increase it’s value over time.  Some things are low risk to increase in value and others are not.  To determine the potential for capital gain within an investment requires careful and diligent analysis.

Half your capital gain is tax exempt, so in essence 50% of the gain is not taxed. (Their are exceptions to this and different rules for corporate capital gains)

Making Conclusions

Everyday all of us gather data, analyze it and act.  The resulting actions could be nothing (also a default), gathering more data, or behaving in a way we conclude is appropriate to the facts.

Same Facts, Same Conclusions – Not!

Conclusions are very dependent on perceptions, preconceived notions, personal baggage – basically your filters for helping you understand a set of facts.

The really scary part is in many cases the same set of facts can lead to multiple conclusions and all can be right.  And of course on occasion this principle does not apply.

Consider an individual on trial for murder.  The jury have all been presented the same facts, but interpret them with their filters and could come to different conclusions, that is guilty, not guilty or even not enough information to decide (which in our system is not guilty).  Hung juries do occur so we know this circumstance can happen (some jurors say guilty, some say not).   The thing is someone was murdered and the person on trial either did it or they did not.  In this case, clearly there is only one right answer.

Flawed Analysis

It is not possible to be one-hundred percent sure your conclusions are correct or that they are the best approach to handle a given set of facts.  This could be just a decision about what to do next as opposed to a yes or no conclusion like the murder trial but you will still never know for sure if the conclusions was on the mark.

So where does that leave us?

Some helpful ideas

  • keep an open mind as much as possible – i.e., resist your per-conceived ideas and personal behavioral filters to the greatest extent possible.
  • collaborate to validation – use as many sources as you can to review the facts, and present them from alternate views to support or deny your conclusions.
  • test conclusions – before acting construct approaches to confirm the conclusions are the best.  This can take a little time and is not always possible but for key decisions, it is time well spent.
  • admit your wrong when it turns out your conclusions were incorrect  (I did this a couple of times today. )
  • don’t force a conclusion – if the facts are not leading you down a path to a action decision, pause, reflect and come back at the problem later.

Computing for Everyone

The Raspberry Pi Foundation is a non-profit organization from the United Kingdom with a simple goal.  To bring computing to the world without equipment cost being a barrier.

The Pi came in two models the A and B.  The main difference being the amount of RAM.  The price was $20 /$35.   This got you a board with hdmi, coax, usb, sd slot and configured to run Linux Debian or Arch Linux operating systems (those are shareware so free.)   Peripherals like a case, mouse, keyboard, monitor and cables could bring the price to $50 to $100 for a fully functional desktop computer.   Still pretty inexpensive.

Last month the Raspberry Pi Foundation released the Raspberry Pi Zero.  Cost.  The base cost is $5.

Is it worth it?

I use my Raspberry Pi to run Kodi which is the current name for the X Box Media Server which was open source software written originally for the X box but now runs on virtually every platform (from OSX to Android).  Kodi is great for streaming video and music.  Basically for $100 at the most and could be much less you can connect this to your TV and have a fully functional multi media environment.

At this price, you can have more than one Pi and also use it for example as a linux desktop. It has all the functionality of a desktop but also encourages you to write your own programs (both Linux versions include Python programming applications).  You can use the board for your homemade automation solutions by hooking it up to other devices like cameras, appliances or lighting.  In combination with a cheap arduino switch can be used to automate simple mechanical functions.

Computing for the world

Is it working?   Have third world countries embraced this technology so computers are becoming as endemic as they are in more developed areas of the world.

It seems the jury is still out on that, but in roads are being made, it won’t happen overnight.  And there is value even in the developed world.

An Interesting Experiment

The pi has been subjected to a lot of innovative uses, since it’s inception and as cost is not really a barrier the limits are only hardware itself and human innovation.

I think this is a fabulous and innovative way to bring the power of computing to the world.  If you are interested you can buy a pi (or more than one) in Canada at all sorts of online stores including amazon.ca and buyapi.ca

Home Automation – Apple – The Internet of Things

When I originally planned the content for yesterday’s post about home automation I had planned to talk a little bit about Apple’s strategy when it comes to home automation and more generally the internet of things.

The home automation competitive landscape

Some feedback I received after yesterday’s post reminded me what a competitive space the home automation market.  From established players like Cisco, D-link, Google, Microsoft and of course Apple the would be market crashes number in the hundreds if not the thousands.   Articles forward to me covered crowd funding, open source and even non-profit initiatives (raspberry pi) aimed at breaking into this market.  Like I said yesterday the explosion is coming.

How about the apple advantage

Apples business model balances proprietary with open use (see the app store) but the key is all their devices work together and often (although that is changing a bit) don’t integrate with other devices.  Will we see Android/ IoS compatibility or seamless integration of applications for use on multi-platforms – not in my lifetime.  Apple see no advantage to this.  In fact probably just the opposite in terms of building a stakeholder base and associated revenues.  Why share with someone else.

Which brings us to Apple – Home Automation and the Internet of Things (IOT)

Home automation in it’s basic form is an extension of the  IOT, that is devices communicating (intelligently) with other devices.  Apples suite of devices from laptop, desktop, phone to watches, i-pad and i-pod all do this (communicate with each other) seamlessly, mostly without effort or thought on the users part (often even when you don’t want them to, it’s hard to disable – ah-ha; Apple is big brother).

Think about Sony, Samsung (stuck with what google wants android to integrate with) and LG, General Electric, Philips,  Cisco just to name a few device manufacturers that would really benefit from integration of their devices through automation applications.  Their best best is to go beg apple to integrate with them as they have the biggest market share of inter-operable devices in place.  Or of course build their own, not cheap.

Home Automation – Convenient or Creepy

Using a mobile device to control key functions of your home is here.  While not yet as widespread in North America as an automobile in every driveway, television in every living room and at least one computer in every home, it is on it’s way.

Big Brother is Watching!

As you approach your house the pre-set distance from your phone and home triggers automatic lighting.  Various levels of brightness, even some hues of different colors.  Your phone informs you a parcel was dropped at the front door earlier in the day and a picture of the parcel on your door step pop’s up.

You were particularly cold today so before you left the office you raised the temperature.  It will be a toasty 25 degrees (centigrade) when you walk in.  This is different from a scheduled raise and drop in the thermostat.  The song you choose on your drive home is playing softly and/ or loudly in all the selected rooms.  You greet your baby using face time (she lives with your former wife) You’ve been watching  the toddler all day from the office on the baby cam.    Tthe door to door salesman who had rung your bell earlier is long gone as you told him firmly but politely to take off – this from your office without anyone even opening the door.

Thirty minutes after your arrival the courier shows up (your phone had notified them you were home – GPS tracking) with the groceries your fridge had ordered online based on the shopping list created by you scanning labels of what you wanted, had finished and needed more of.

The technology exists today to do all this things and more.

Impenetrable Security

Of course fail-safe security against intrusion and hacking does not exist.  And the government (including law enforcement and taxation) want to know all about your habits and behaviors (as much as the hacker) and is it just a matter of time before they are tapped in.

If you think about my automation scenario it is pretty cool and seems to be a great advance in convenience and efficiency (maybe even safety), but I wonder this over exposure of your life is not a bit creepy/scary  ( No different from social media in some ways though).

Stay tuned for more on this topic tomorrow – from a commercial perspective and more about security.

Worry and Acting Responsibly

Mad magazine first published as a comic in 1952 becoming a satirical magazine in 1955.  The mag’s famous mascot is Alfred E. Neuman.  Alfred’s motto is “What me worry”.

Mad is still published today albeit with a much reduced circulation from their peak year of 1974 (two million).  Maybe they should try pictures of nude women (see yesterday’s post).

I grew up reading Mad (although I have not read an issue in years) and I always admired the “What me worry” slogan.

Managing your Worries

Years ago at a seminar I attended; the key note speaker spoke about using  a shrug and mantra ” it is what it is”  or ” it just is” to resolve things that would worry you and allow you to move on.

Strangely I have found this technique to be very effective for me and practice it regularly.  Logically worrying about, or being bothered by, things you cannot change does not make sense.

What about acting responsibly?

A recent experience got me thinking about some of the potential negative impacts on others  when you follow the “What me worry?” principles.

Let’s say you are regularly late for appointments.   Comments like “traffic was terrible”,  “my wife was late and held me up” can work really well from a personal perspective.  That is to say “it is what it is, what could I do”?   Of course this could work for those waiting for you as well – “It is what it is, you are always late, no worries”.

I do have a bit of emotional reaction to this scenario however.

It make me realize that while the ability to relax and enjoy a moment, not to worry about things that don’t deserve to worried about is a great practice to have in your behavior arsenal, but like all things a balance is needed.

Everybody is important and a promise is a promise are key values that need to factor into this equation.  Sometimes worrying about how you negatively impact others is appropriate.