Tag Archives: speculation

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Making Assumptions

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From time to time most of us will accept something as true or as certain to happen, even though we do not have absolute proof (it is possible definitive evidence of the truth does not exist.

Making assumptions can be expedient but it could also result in inappropriate behaviour or doing the wrong activity because things we not actually as you assumed them to be.

Speculation

A close cousin to the making of assumptions occurs when we form a theory or conjecture without firm evidence, i.e., speculate.  Combining speculation with assumptions can lead to a very dangerous combination.

Basically, inadequate quality of facts and inconclusive information leads us to actions that appear to be supported by feelings or beliefs that we can firmly trust, although in fact they are based a bit on smoke and mirrors, (i.e., what appears to be, not necessarily what is).

Easy and Simple

The prime motivation for acting on speculative information and assumptions is simplicity.  It is easier to assume you know the answer and proceed than step back, dig in and investigate.

We can achieve our goals by knowing how to proceed and assumptions provide us with that direction.  Sometimes it works and of course, our level of false confidence drives our ability to make assumptions comfortably.

The thinking goes “We are good at this, it’s unlikely we are wrong.  Why wait, why do more work?  Let’s get it done.”  Unfortunately, this approach does not always work out.  Worse when it misfires you can really make an ass of yourself (or worse).

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Rumors

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From time to time many of us will engage in casual or unconstrained conversation about other people, typically involving details that are not confirmed as being true.

There is some pleasure attained from gossip, it is after all about others (turns the focus of us) and because of its secret nature (just between us), it can be titillating.

Gossip to Rumors

With time and persistence gossip can become more widely circulated stories or reports of uncertain or doubtful truth.   These rumors can be impactful and damaging to their targets.

Closely associated with gossip and rumors is speculation., that is forming a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.  The sharing of this speculation, unless clearly labeled as such, can become gossip and lead to rumors.

Caution

While exchanging speculation about upcoming changes and events or gossiping about other people leading widespread rumors can have some entertainment value it is important to be careful not to offend or even libel someone.

Making sure that entertainment is focused on providing amusement or enjoyment, not at the expense of others, is key to avoiding malicious or libelous gossip or rumors.

The context of information sharing is really important.  How the message is delivered matters and if not clearly defined as speculative (for fun discussion) there is possible damage will be done.

Ultimately this might not just harm the subject of your gossip but could backfire against you.  To some degree, the rumor needs to have some believability or it will just be discarded outright as fantasy but making it seem too real can have dangerous consequences.

 

Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Predictions

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The new year commenced a week ago. During the past few weeks the media is full of looks back and forward. The commentators, analysts and subject matter experts estimate what will happen in the future and/or what will be a consequence of something that happened during 2019.

Predictions can be used to guide our behaviour. Theoretically, past behaviour can be a predictor of future behaviour. Unfortunately it is also true future behaviour may be total unrelated to the the past.

Speculating how to leverage future events to our advantage is a little bit like gambling. Predictions create the underlying logic that helps us believe we are making rationale choices.

The Economy

The Canadian economy, in essence key impacts on jobs and income, Can be a telltale sign of posperity to come, or lack thereoff.

This can be a self fullfilling prophecy. When consumers believe income risk is low and product availability and pricing prospects are good, then the propensity to consume rises.

Greater demand fuels the need for greater supply and voila the market economy spirals up. So, what the population believes lies ahead in the future can in fact influence the future.

Propaganda can be used by governments and corporations to drive desired behaviours. This works to a point but, often and some time in the cycle, reality rudely intrudes and crash.

All the predictions and proclaimations lose their shine and credibility. Smoke and mirrors can work for a while but ultimately reality intrudes.

So what is in store for 2020. Who knows for sure. Based on the past year though my call would be whatever happens it will be unpredictable.