The other day a colleague advised me he was absolutely certain about something.  The implication was he knew his information was for sure, in his mind it had been established beyond doubt.

The things we know are likely never an unqualified certainty and so cannot be fully relied on.  This particularly applies to future happenings.

Blind Faith

Relying on certainty as an absolute indicates some lack of perception, awareness, or discernment.  That is, blindly believing a thing without recognizing the unknown always exists and can lead to the unexpected is a bit myopic.

That is not to imply our plans and actions should always take into account the potential things will not unfold as we expect.  While this is a possibility the types of impact-driven by uncertainty will vary with the situation.

For example, planning a wedding taking into account the very real possibility it may be called off by the happily engaged couple is certainly a way to mitigate the frustration and costs of standing down.

However, it is unlikely to occur.  Most engaged couples do proceed.

Be Prepared

Preparing for uncertainty should begin with an assessment of likelihood.  If things are likely to proceed as expected, based on past experience, current state, and what is known about the future, planning to address the uncertainties can do more harm than good.

It is important to recognize being prepared to address uncertainty can both save us from pain and stress as well as cause us pain and stress (as we focus on the uncertain).

Strike a balance

The best approach to managing the uncertainty is to conduct a thorough analysis, test assumptions to the greatest degree possible, and ignore uncertainty with on the face of it is unlikely to have any impact or if it does minimal impact.

Balance what you know with what you don’t with a modicum of common sense.