Category Archives: Random thoughts – keeping you on your toes

Capital or Income?

The past week and a half of market volatility have put a dent in the value of many investment portfolios.  This decrease in value of equities, mutual or exchange traded funds or even bonds has a silver lining for the income investor.

Fixed income instruments or dividend paying equities whose underlying businesses continue to thrive,  still pay the cash out at the defined frequency and rate.  The dividends may drop in a bad economy, but that is not the case here at all.

Markets value of equities, funds and bonds (existing bonds not new issues) are dropping but in this case it is not because the economy is tanking, so income streams are relatively untouched.

 Buying Opportunity

Income has built up or continues from your existing investments, their prices are lower, perhaps even lower than you paid for them, so now is the time to buy and increase your yield.

For the income investor, the amount of capital is almost irrelavent.  The number of shares, units or bond interest rate is all that really matters.  If your portfolio returned $100,000 a year in income, whether it’s value is $1,000,000 or $500,000 you still have your income.

The issue is not paper losses of capital.  If you need the money and have to sell and take a real capital loss, that would be an issue.  Not only do you realize the loss but also reduce future income.

If you can retain enough liquid cash to cover sudden cash needs and meet your regular  income needs from your less liquid  capital investments,  market volatility should not be a concern.  Don’t panic.

Embrace the Unknown

I was working with a team the other day and one of the participants asked me if I knew what I was doing.  I paused for a moment and then gave the only reply that makes sense to me.

If I knew what I was doing I would not be human, nor would life be as entertaining as it is.  Embrace the unknown – that is truly the root of all enjoyment.

Obviously, at a point in time, for a specific circumstance, it is both beneficial and probably imperative to know what you are doing.  Sometimes it is enjoyable to be blissfully unaware.

Philisophically Speaking

From a broader perspective, considering life, on the whole, do you really want to know the meaning of life?  Theoretically, if you knew the meaning of life you could achieve it and once achieved there would be no further reason to live.

Thus, knowing the meaning of life could, in fact, be deadly.  Extrapolating, admittedly very broadly, not knowing what you are doing can have real benefit.  In fact, in and of itself that could provide a foundation to continue living.

Knowing What you are doing in the moment

Of course, as noted, not knowing what you are doing at the moment would be confusing.  To a large extent, the interpretation of the context of the question is critical.

For example, if you drive a car after having drunk a lot of alcohol,  I might argue, given the severe risk of major consequences, you did not know what you were doing but would have been better off knowing in that case.

On the philosophical plane of existence, taking a note from the Beatles song library, “Tomorrow never knows”.  That is probably a good thing.

So sometimes knowing is good and sometimes more natural not to.

 

In the Zoo

Many organizations, private, public and otherwise has chosen to create open office concepts in their workplaces. The organizations office workers congregate in the spaces daily.

The concept of private offices with doors has been replaced with hoteling spaces.  The idea is you make a reservation, meet in private behind closed doors and then go back to your open office.

Pros and Cons

Apparently, open concept spaces encourage collaboration. and they are cheaper to maintain, and of course you need less space, that is you can get more workspaces per square foot versus private offices.

The open space can be equipped with more social amenities that can be enjoyed by all ( shared posting boards, open coffee and snack locations, comfortable couches and other furmiture).

On the other hand, they are in a way incestuous, everyone is joined with everyone else.  Often you can’t help see what is on others computer screens, overhear their calls or conversations they have with both your and their colleagues.

When someone is not around in these open spaces,  it is quickly known and in this day of preeminent usage of social media people reported to  others through text messaging.  It is to some degree worse than a spy network.

Collaboration

Personally I am very familiar with open concept work spaces and have enjoyed both private  offices, semi private cubicles and fully open workspaces at various points through out my career.

In all cases, collaboration with comrades in arms was never improved or decreased by the office space design.  I did notice though the level of interoffice speculation (aka gossip) was always significantly higher the more open the workspace.

Economic Theory – Kerromics

While I have the benefit of observation, experience, practical training and I read and research a lot about the topic, I am not a trained economist.

Mainly I comment on things I have read or provide an opinion on a known economic theory or underlying principles.  Until now I have not proposed a unique and subjective theory of my own making.

Business activity

The world economy is based on business activity.  People produce stuff, from raw material to end product.  This includes the creation, aquisition and sales of anything that others will pay for (real or imaginary property),  if it is valued by someone it can be part of business activity.

Typically, business activity requires resources (e.g.,  raw material, know how, equipment, infrastructure).  However, without exception the most critical resource for business activity is human.    Thus business activity by and large engages humans for monetary return  (or occassionally other compensation).  We call this employment.

In this simplistic analysis employment is a key measure of business activity (aka the economy) and common sense leads us to believe high employment is indicative of a strong economy while low employment is the opposite.

Not Any More

And so we reach the crux of my theory.  Changes in the working population of the industrial world (aging people are not working) is resulting in a higher employment rate (it looks like more people are working)

The conclusion is business activity should be picking up, but it is not.  The normal things that occur with increased business activity – stronger investment markets, greater availability of commodities and most importantly, increased spending, are not happening.

Increased spending occurs because more people are employed, that is a higher rate of enployment.  The  fatal flaw in that thinking is the fact less are employed because there are less people to employee but this lower number of available resources make us think employment is high and therefore business activity on the rise.

I think the behavior of investment markets over the last few days raises some real questions about standard economic theory.

 

 

 

Boiling a Frog/ An aging work force

Al Gores movie “An  Inconvenient Truth” was the first time I heard the frog analogy.  Basically if you put a frog in hot water it recognizes the danger immediately and hops out.

On the other hand, if the frog is placed in cold water it will stay (Frogs like water after all).  If you slowly bring the water to boil, the frog does not recognize the danger until it is too late and boils to death.

Whose going to do the work?

Boiling the frog is not only an a apt analogy for globally warming but generally applies when the danger signs are ignored until it is too late.

A recent article I read about skilled worker shortages in Ontario reminded me of the boiling frog scenario.  In the mid 2000’s, demographers (those whose study populations) predicted most nations in the industrial world would experience labour shortages as the populations aged  (if not all) .

As time has progressed nothing immediate happened and we the populations of the industrially advanced countries, have become omplacent.

Over 40% of the Japanese population is over 60 years old.  The prediction that the retired Japanese population will overtake those working is clearly slowly coming true.

In Canada, skilled worker shortages are becoming more apparent as the aging trained workers leave the work force.  Replacememt is exacerbated by the fact the younger generation are exhibiting a tendancy to foresake manual labour, factor and trades in favour of professional roles.

In Short

We know an aging population and changes in the preferred occupations are going to lead to labour shortages.  In fact we have known this for over a decade, yet, like the frog we are just complacent.

 

 

Manager and Leader

Yesterdays post focused on the concept of a manager.  There was a time that C series positions in organizations were considered senior managers.

Today it’s more likely to hear them referred to as leaders.  In fact from senior to mid levels of management, even low level managers and some supervisors are thought of as leaders.

Leader/Manager, what’s the diff?

While both leaders and managers get things done through others, that is where the similarity ends.  The difference is both what is done and how it is enabled.

Managers use planning (schedule/ strategy), organizing (processes/ policy/reporting lines) and control ( monitoring/governance) to get the work done, make sure it is the right work and done efficiently with high quality.

Leaders collaborate, motivate, communicate (two way), understand, guide, facilitate and so on.  These practices, particularly enabling the creation  of visions and strategies to inform the tactical work, are intended to get work done through others, but are believed to be far more effective than just planning organizing and directing.

As I noted yesterday neither leaders nor managers typically physically perform the work they are getting done through others.  Their work, and this applies to both roles, is ensuring the right work is done in the best way. (Best meaning highly satisfactory to all stakeholders).

Understanding the Principal

While leadership practices outshine basic management, understanding the core principal in basic terms, i.e., the goal is to get work done through others, is absolutely fundamental and key to becoming effective as a leader.

First management basics, second leadership.

Manager Definition

The classic business school definition of a manager is very goal and task focused.  Managers get things done through others.  The three top skills are plan, organize and control.

Leadership is a skill that can be leveraged by managers, supervisors or anyone else for that matter.  Typically managers and supervisors are given granted power but skilled leadership gets things done through collaboration, buy-in and leveraging the power of everyone ( albeit must be earned).

What do you do?

In a manager role, whether through a direct reporting heirarchy or an assignment specific basic (often called matrix because granted power is lower and earned power critical), I have been asked “What do you do?”

The short answer is I complete no task work.  Tongue in cheek, I do nothing.  If I am skilled at my main goal, getting work done through others, others complete the activities and tasks efficiently and effectively .  They know what to do when.

If the goals and objectives are achieved because the work is completed I am successful although I probably did nothing beyond facilitate, motivate guide and lead.

In a manager role (e.g., a project manager) I am accountable to plan, organize and control.

A good manager recognizes when those doing the work push back and complain,  the manager just needs the self confidence to smile knowingly and hold their tongue.

Complaints  about the lack of work the manager does including accusing them of just being just a scheduler or administrator questioning why they are even needed is typically initiated without the maturity or experience to understand the real value.

Through experience I have seen the results when there is no or poorly executed management.  The results are costly and painful.  Managers don’t do anything but without their skilled planning, organizing and control disaster reigns (losses, low quality, bad morale, high turnover, just to name a few symptoms.

If the box fits

For most, our daily lives are framed by constraints.  For example, you  get up at specific times based on committments  or perhaps lack thereof.  You go to bed based on the constraint of when you are getting up.

This framework can form a box (metaphorically speaking) which you comfortably fit into.  The question is, just because the box fits, should you wear it?

Personal Satisfaction/Enjoyment

Routine can be relaxing and followed with ease, in short comfortable.  It might not be the best approach to maximizing your personal pleasure even if it is probably the easiest path to follow.

Going to bed at different hours , changing up your travel routine, trying different daily activities are more likely to challenge you and psychology studies indicate stepping out of the box and mixing it up increases the  probability of self satisfaction (albeit the studies seem to employ somewhat subjective measures.).

Breaking Out

Extreme practices, for example consistently stretching or breaking the box that surrounds you is not being recommended.  As with most things a judicous balanced approach is most likely best.

That is some combination of routine and impulsive behaviour, is more likely to  result in making you feel better over time.

Consistent routine might result in lost opportunities to accelerate your personal pleasure while an reckless approach might be invigorating it could be too stressful.

Give it some concious thought, break away from the unconcious routine, to some extent and check the results. You might surprise yourself.

 

Complications

Complications arise when circumstances create an obstacle, require effort to hurdle through and move ahead or a problem arises that appears difficult to resolve .

I wonder how much of these complication are in fact of our own making.  In our head, so to speak, we devise problems that don’t exist.

To some degree I have observed others devise and communicate complications during a team collaboration, a behaviour I suspect is largely a way to gain recognition and be percieved as important.

Without Accountability

One of my greatest frustrations is when individuals are participating in a meeting,  or other collaborative activity, without clear purpose or accountability.

In these case the temptation for them to create complications simply to justify their presence is high.  What a waste of both everyones effort and of course efficiency and effectiveness fly out the window.

Hidden Agenda

Less frequent but just as frustrating are those occassions when someone raises complications just to be purposely disruptive.  These cases are usually motivated by some hidden agenda (e.g., derail the work, stop a change from occuring and so on)

Relax, Coast on Thru

Frustration, anger, paying attention to these silly complications in any way just feeds the disruptors motive.  Firm, polite facilitation toward the goal (which is was clearly stated up front) is a great mitigator of those who complicate.

I frequently find other participants readily support going back on track.  By not paying attention or getting hooked by extraneous and unecessary complications you will find the odds of achieving your objective rise significantly.

Stating the Obvious

Sometimes the iceberg is right in front of us and like the Titanic we plow ahead anyway.  The sudden collision is a pretty good indicator we missed something, sadly like the Titanic it might be too late.

The obvious can often only be understood when you conciously observe and process it.  Often we simply track on the expected and might roll with the obvious, roll over it or miss the opportunity presented entirely.

Philosophically speaking

Philosophers have been known to categorize the discipline as the study of the obvious.  This of course can lead to the obvious question, why study the obvious which  by definition is easily perceived or understood; clear, self-evident, or apparent.

Maybe not always so.  This is the aspect of the obvious recognized by philosophers.  While the information might be easily digested,  it is similarly easily misunderstood or overlooked.

One key to philosophical analysis is not the statement of the obvious but rather unearthing the oppotunities associated with things we generally percieve unconciously and so do not reap the full benefit.

For Example

Consider the obvious comment “You are more likely to achieve sustainable long term goals through a carefully planned, reasoned approach”.

Over the years I have shared that thought with many friends and colleagues to derisory feedback like “duh”, “tell me something I did not know”.

Yet the frequency I have observed others behaving exactly contrary are numerous.  Demanding, threatening, unplanned spur of the moment reactionary behaviour has been far more common.  This could of course just be my own bad fortune but I don’t think so.

The next time the obvious occurs to you, pause, think it through fully.  Use it before just letting it pass without benefit to yourself.