Since January we have been bombarded with numbers related to the Covid pandemic.  Statistics ranging from the number of active cases in a country to the number of deaths and everything in-between.

Analysis of numbers is a bit of a passion of mine.  For me, interpreting the story being told is in some ways like reading a good murder mystery.  Can I figure out what they are telling me and I guess I will only know with certainty when they confess?

If they don’t confess, in other words, there is no definitive proof my interpretation is correct (it is only a theory, not a law) I might believe I have figured out the story, but have I?

Same Facts, Multiple Conclusions

Typically strong arguments can be made supporting a variety of conclusions based on the same set of facts.  Facts used to decide courses of action do not, therefore, provide an absolute or unwavering solution.

Until your theories based on a data set are actually confirmed they are just well-educated guesses.  An abundance of data does not necessarily improve the quality of the conclusions.  It may even provide some obfustication.

Pandemic Data Overload

Given the huge variables involved in measuring the progress of the pandemic, from the level of testing to severity of the illness and ultimate impacts, it is almost impossible to arrive at supportable conclusions.

In some cases governments are using the data they have to create fear that enables them to implement the actions they feel necessary but given the lack of control data and measurement standards, this is really unconscionable.   Honesty about what we do and don’t know should be the byword of the day.