One of the largest markets for refined oil is automobile gasoline.  Electric cars will reduce that market.  I do note that some electricity is produced using oil products, so more electricity use could increase oil demand somewhat.

All in all though, it’s obvious electric cars will have a strong impact on demand for refined oil.  For me, the key question is when will  electric vehicles (EV) fully replace those based on internal combustion?  Will this occur before oil supplies are exhausted, or just around the time they are running out or will the drive to electric be linked to the depletion of oil supplies.  That is, when there is no more gas will people flock to EV’s.  Or, will people flock to EV’s before gas supplies are an issue.

Of course, planes, ships, trains, power plants and a number of other things use gas so even if automobiles completely switch to electricity there will continue to be a demand for fossil fuels (just very reduced).

Overtime replacements for these other uses of oil will appear (e.g., methods to produce heat and power through renewable energy sources are already being promoted as replacements for fossil fuels)

Is past behavior a predictor of the future?

The opportunity to switch from internal combustion automobiles to electric vehicles has both existed and been practical and viable since the nineteen seventies.  Yet, on the whole, the populations of the earth have chosen not to switch.  This behavior predicts that switching will neither be fast nor occur without some strong motivation (e.g., no more oil or refined oil products are no longer affordable).

Ecology or Supply

It is quite interesting that the fact that using fossil fuels is proven to damage our environments has not caused us to stop using them.   I postulate one of the key reasons for this is immediate impact.  The reality is the boiling frog analogy is quite accurate.   In this example,  if you put a frog in a pot of water and start to boil it, the frog will remain in boiling water until it is unable to escape.  When  the danger is realized, it is too late.

In the case of the human race, the capability to adapt and recover (human resiliency) has been proven throughout the past centuries to be very real.   That is, a flood or earthquake or volcanic eruption are taken in stride, the populations react, recover and move on.   Will this be true for the overall ecology of the planet remains to be seen.  I will probably be dead before then and so it’s hard to get motivated.

The Economic Dilema

I will close this post with the other key factor around the switch to electric vehicles.  Much of our current economies (world wide) are dependent on acquisition and refining of fossil fuels and building and maintaining of internal combustion vehicles.   Can we switch to electric vehicles without a massive economic turmoil?