Going for a walk on a crisp cold day following a thaw can be tricky, one must be careful not to slip on the ice and possibly break something or worse.

This raises an interesting question, what is the best way to determine whether to eliminate your risk and not walk (although this could have other health impacts) or is a walk on an icy day an acceptable personal risk.

Benefit

The primary consideration of any undertaking should start with the simple value equation.  That is considering the benefit versus the cost.

In my very real example of going for a walk on an icy day the primary benefit is health based both physical and mental.  The magnitude of the benefit varies widely depending on each persons current state but each of us can subjectively assess the benefit to us.

The direct cost is zero, their may be some indirect costs which probably are mostly related to the results of injury or some related incident like a dog bite or catching some disease from another walker.  If these risks don’t occur the walk is likely free.

Likelihood and Impact

If the value equation suggests proceeding makes sense a more rigorous analysis of the risks is called for.   In particular if the risk event occurred how bad would it be and of course how likely is it to occur in the first place.

In the case of walking on an icy day falling and hurting yourself, (potentially quite significantly) is higher than on a warm dry day but can be mitigated by walking carefully.

However, perhaps your experience with walking on ice is limited and thus the risk is not that easily mitigated.  In that case perhaps foregoing the walk makes sense.

Assess and Proceed

The key to effective personal risk assessment is to actually do it.  This is a very effective way to limit negative impacts as you wend your way through life’s journey and it works.