The catch all definition for a surprise is “an unexpected or astonishing event.”    This is a bit simplistic because the magnitude of surprise can vary depending on how impactful the event is, whether is negative or positive and how unexpected it was. (But they all are surprises)

For example, the people living in earthquake prone geographic regions will express surprise when an earthquake occurs, even though it is not truly unexpected.

The moment in time, the magnitude of the earthquake and the results can be somewhat predicted but not with pin point accuracy and the surprise people feel at time of occurance is not unexpected in that context.

Ignore and Hope

Old age is more likely to produce strokes, heart attacks and other negative impacts.  Yet, for many, the signs are ignored to some extent and hopeful ignorance reigns supreme (I will live a long time).  When the physical event occurs it is often a surprise (to some degree anyway).

Wishing negative surprises do not occur is a very natural human behaviour and can be a good stress reliever.  Why worry about something that might occur?  Better to assume it will not.

Pragmatically for the inevitable negative surprises that will come our way acting like an ostrich has some merit  (e.g., death and taxes – although some are not surprised by their taxes).

Predict or Accept

An interesting question for me around the approach to surprises is should we try to predict and worry or just accept them when they occur and move on.

Clearly there is probably not an absolute here.   On one hand, worry can lead to mitigation and real avoidance but it can be unpleasant as well.  On the other hand, acceptance is not always easy to do.