Tag Archives: investing

Understanding your investment style

There are many ways to configure the types of investments in your portfolio.  On the principle of keep it simple I classify my investments into one of the following 4 categories:

  • Growth
  • Dividend
  • Value
  • Index

My portfolio has all categories but by classifying I can weight to my point in time needs ( more on this later)

In Sept 2012, the Globe and Mail hired four investors and charged each with managing a hypothetical portfolio focused on buying and selling stocks according to type.

The overall returns for the first 3.5 years (so as at March 2016) were: growth – 206.69%, value – 67.77 %, dividend – 45.10 % and Index – 30.89%.

Even the lowest return averages just under 10 % a year.  Way better than a low risk fixed income product like a GIC or Govt bond.

Approach aside, how do you select?

Awareness of these four basic approaches to categorizing a stock can help with the selection process but regardless of the type still the most important step is the actual vetting of the individual equity.

Each approach has a different risk profile and associated potential return (risk/reward).  Generally regardless of the characterization of your purpose (i.e.,growth, income,low risk, good value) the most important factor is that the equity you select performs as expected.

You can use performance measures and various screening techniques to help with this process .  This can be used to identify historic behavior of the stock (although not always a predictor of future behaviour.)

The type of stock in your portfolio can be classified and balanced based on the metrics and future performance predicted.  However, my own selection style always includes these commom sense analysis steps:

  • do I understand the business model (and does it make sense)
  • does the stock match my point in time needs relative to growth, risk and income (these change over time)
  • do the companies leadership behaviors conform to my personal value system (e.g., Volkswagen – NOT)

In short, I would classify my own investment style’s most prominent feature as common sense.

Buy and Hold

As the equity investment market in Canada is in strong decline as of late I am doing a few posts on investing concepts.  I strongly recommend you follow the series in sequence.  I started Sunday with some high level concepts and focused yesterday on equity investing.

Don’t need the capital, hold!

The object of investing is  to provide fuel for the economy while making some money for yourself.  Invested funds are used to produce products or services which are paid for with money which is used by the producer to pay wages, produce more product and services, return money to investors and buy other stuff.  This in turn puts more money in the economy and everything spirals up.

When you provide capital to fuel the economy, as noted yesterday, even if the investment drops in value (unrealized loss) as long as you don’t need the capital back you can hang on until you have an unrealized gain.  You could then sell and realize the gain or not and just continue to hold the investment.

Why would you do this?

The intent of investing is to make money.  This can be from dividend/interest payments or capital gains.  The goal is to have optimal returns and if you can grow your funds through all all three ways (dividend, interest, capital gains) of course this is a good idea.

That being said, if you buy the investment and get a solid steady continuous  return with little risk without fooling around with the capital by just gathering income, than why not.

And the Point

These days of doom and gloom, the media is screaming about the economic downturn and capital losses in the equity markets (among other bad things).  The reality is, if you don’t sell your capital investment you don’t lose anything.

In fact, a possible but exaggerated example might be the case where you invested $1 million in a bunch of blue chip stocks with dividends of 10% or $100,000 a year.  From today, the capital value of the stocks might drop to $500,000 (don’t sell yet so not actual loss) and five years from now it might be $2 million.  If you hold the investment for 5 years you will earn $500,000 in dividends and then $1 million in capital gains (if you sell at that point, I would probably still hold).

All just because you held on.

The Caveats

Of course if the company stops paying a dividend or goes bankrupt you will ultimately lose.  The thing to consider though, is how likely is this for blue chip stocks (it does happen but not often) and if it does there are probably more problems – big companies collapsing can’t be good all around.

And the final word is, obviously if you are leveraged (owe money) or have an unexpected need for the capital then this approach does not work.

If you can follow the buy and hold approach, though it is not guaranteed the likelihood of  a reasonable reward is a decent possibility.

 

Timely Investing Thoughts

Equity markets tanked on Monday of this week.  The typical labels describing the day have been coined; not necessarily the most imaginary but probably the most common is “Black Monday”.

I saw a great tweet on the topic from someone living in a third world country aimed at the first world nations  ” I feel really bad for you, having to sell one of your 4 TV’s”.

One of my favorite questions is about why people panic sell.  I actually doubt that the majority of the trades were anything but well planned profit taking.  Remember on any given day institutional and day trading initiate most of the trades (buy or sell) and well it’s possible fund managers/day traders are acting emotionally it is far more likely they are selling to realize profit with a plan to reinvest when the market settles, that is market timing approach versus value investing.  I am sure some panic selling occurs but my guess would be a very small percentage.

How would it work?

Say you bought 1500 shares of Bank of Montreal (BMO) at cost basis of $35 share.  On Aug 19th BMO was approximately $71.5 share.  If you sold on say Thursday as it started to drop at $70 you would have locked in $54,750 profit.  Whoo hoo!

If you bought those 1500 shares back on Monday at $66.18, (spending some of your profit) you would be up on paper today by      $7,860 as the value of the shares is back to $71.42, you would still have your 1500 BMO share and associated dividend flow while  retaining $5,730 cash profit which was removed to spend on something else.  (A nice dinner maybe).

RISK???

Yes, this profit taking has risk, however in the volatile market of the last couple of years, there are a number of large cap stocks for which this market timing practice has shown to be quite predictable  (in hindsight of course).