The jobless rate in Canada is on the rise.  Panic ensues about the vibrancy of the economy particularly the resource sector.  And through all the articles about these things, I rarely see the issue of the shift in the workforce balance commented on.

This is a bit strange to me as I am pretty sure it is going to drive the shape of the economies around the world over the next 10 years.

Consider the Boomers

The baby boomer generation covers those born between 1945 and 1965.  The birth rate for this group is like a bell curve.  That is lowest at either extreme (1945 and 1965) and the highest in the middle (1955).

This distribution applies to this generations retirement plans as well.  In 2015 it is estimated approximately 16% of the population of 35,000,000 in total is retired.  This is currently increasing by 3.5% at year now and as more boomers become eligible this rate will rise.

Also, often not taken into account is the fact only 18% of the boomers are currently retired,  although considering the 20 year span of the boomer generation those in the first 5 years of the boomer generation account for 25% of the time period.

As we move to 2020 thru to 2024 more like 82% of boomers will move into retirement and the retired population of Canada (taking the death rate into account) will climb to 20%.

Basically taking retirees and children into account there are currently 23.8 million  people at working age.  In 2024 this will drop to 22.4 million a reduction of 1.4 million.  (Birth, death and population growth rates assumed to balance out)

There are currently about 1.5 million unemployed people in Canada.  By this analysis (which is high level at best) we are cruising for zero unemployment.

Horrors, who will be willing to work at Walmart?  Who is going to support all the children and old people.  What will happen to the role of the Walmart greeter?

Work Force Down/ Demand for Workers Up

By my calculations, in 10 years the balance between supply (available workers) and demand (need for workers) is going to shift dramatically.  Good for the grandchildren’s job prospects I guess.